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Prediction Markets Spark Insider Trading Concerns Amid $44B Trading Boom

3/22/2026

Summary

Story summary

Prediction markets raise insider trading concerns, with bettors potentially alerting foreign adversaries.
Mick Mulvaney, former Republican official, warned bettors could inadvertently alert adversaries to incidents.
Recent examples include a $553,000 payout on Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei ouster and bets on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Kalshi, a regulated exchange, says it monitors for insider trading.
Trading on prediction markets exceeded $44 billion in 2025.

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Story summary

Prediction markets raise insider trading concerns, with bettors potentially alerting foreign adversaries.
Mick Mulvaney, former Republican official, warned bettors could inadvertently alert adversaries to incidents.
Recent examples include a $553,000 payout on Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei ouster and bets on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Kalshi, a regulated exchange, says it monitors for insider trading.
Trading on prediction markets exceeded $44 billion in 2025.