The Global Food Crisis: Consequences of the Iran Conflict

The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, which escalated on February 28, 2026, has significant repercussions beyond the immediate battlegrounds, particularly affecting global food supply chains. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint, is central to this disruption, impacting the transportation of essential goods, including fertilizers and food products. As the war continues, reports indicate that countries reliant on imports from the Gulf region are facing severe shortages and skyrocketing prices.

“Global Hunger Could Hit A Record”:UN Warns Iran Conflict Could Push 45 Million Into Acute Hunger

The conflict has led to substantial disruptions in the supply of fertilizers, crucial for agricultural productivity. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), countries like Sudan, Sri Lanka, and Tanzania depend heavily on fertilizers sourced through Hormuz, with over half of Sudan's fertilizer imports coming from this route. The ongoing war has resulted in delays and increased costs, forcing farmers to contend with both higher energy bills and inflated fertilizer prices. This situation is exacerbated by the fact that China and Russia, other major fertilizer producers, are also delaying exports, further tightening global supply.

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The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that if the conflict persists, an additional 45 million people could face acute hunger, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. The WFP's deputy executive director, Carl Skau, stated, “If this conflict continues, it will send shock waves across the globe, and families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest.” Reports indicate that staple food prices have already surged by 20% in regions like Somalia, highlighting the immediate impact of the conflict on vulnerable populations.

The Guardian

The current crisis compounds existing economic challenges for many developing nations, which are already struggling with high debt levels and inflation. The rising costs of food, fuel, and shipping are expected to intensify cost-of-living pressures, particularly for the most vulnerable communities. UNCTAD has emphasized that the interconnected nature of energy, fertilizer, and transport costs will likely lead to increased food prices globally, further straining household budgets.

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In the wake of the crisis, large agribusiness firms are reportedly leveraging the situation to push for deregulation and increased government support. Critics argue that this approach prioritizes corporate interests over environmental protections and the needs of smallholder farmers. The American Farm Bureau Federation has called for an immediate suspension of regulatory hurdles, framing it as essential for food security. However, this narrative is seen by some as an attempt to exploit the crisis for profit, potentially undermining long-term agricultural sustainability.

Iran war and food prices: How Big Ag profits from the crisis

While some sources indicate that a resolution may be on the horizon, with President Donald Trump issuing a 48-hour deadline for Iran to reopen Hormuz, the damage to infrastructure and the backlog of ships suggest that the repercussions will be felt for months. The potential for a prolonged conflict raises concerns about the future of global food security, particularly as rising fertilizer costs threaten agricultural yields and exacerbate hunger.

The Guardian

• “Higher energy, fertiliser and transport costs – including freight rates, bunker [ie ship] fuel prices and insurance premiums – may increase food costs and intensify cost of living pressures, particularly for the most vulnerable.” — UNCTAD

The Guardian

• “If this conflict continues, it will send shock waves across the globe, and families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest,” — Carl Skau, WFP Deputy Executive Director

The Guardian

• “The current volatility requires an immediate suspension of regulatory hurdles… We cannot prioritise administrative red tape over the ability of American farmers to feed a world in crisis.” — American Farm Bureau Federation

Iran war and food prices: How Big Ag profits from the crisis

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is not only a geopolitical crisis but also a significant threat to global food security, with implications that extend far beyond the immediate region.

“Global Hunger Could Hit A Record”:UN Warns Iran Conflict Could Push 45 Million Into Acute Hunger