Lindsey Graham's Senate Race: Early Polls and Challenges Ahead

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham is currently leading early polls in South Carolina's U.S. Senate race as the 2026 midterm elections approach. Despite this lead, Democrats are optimistic about making the traditionally conservative state competitive, particularly in light of President Donald Trump's declining approval ratings. In the 2024 election, South Carolina supported Trump by an 18-point margin against former Vice President Kamala Harris, indicating a strong Republican base. However, the shifting political landscape has opened opportunities for Democratic challenger Annie Andrews, who previously ran for South Carolina's 1st congressional district in 2022.

Newsweek

Graham faces several challengers in the Republican primary, including Paul Dans, author of Project 2025, and businessman Mark Lynch. Recent polling indicates that Graham maintains a significant lead over his Republican rivals. A Quantus Insights poll from October 2025 showed Graham with 58% support, while Dans garnered 7% and Lynch 15%. Another survey by Big Data Poll reported Graham at 46%, with Dans at 22% and Lynch at 4%. However, Lynch's campaign has claimed momentum, asserting that Graham's support is waning as voters become aware of his positions, particularly regarding military interventions.

Newsweek

In head-to-head matchups against Andrews, Graham also appears to have a narrow lead. An Impact Research poll indicated Graham at 47% compared to Andrews at 42%. Similarly, a Public Policy Polling survey showed Graham ahead by six points (42% to 36%). These close margins suggest that while Graham is favored, the race could tighten as the election date approaches, especially given the potential for a Democratic wave year without Trump on the ballot to galvanize GOP turnout.

Newsweek

President Donald Trump has publicly endorsed Graham, stating on Truth Social that Graham is "working incredibly hard for the Great People of South Carolina" and highlighting his efforts in various policy areas, including economic growth and military support. This endorsement underscores Graham's established connections within the party, which may play a crucial role in his campaign.

Newsweek

Despite his lead, Graham faces criticism from within his party, particularly regarding his support for military actions in the Middle East. Dans has criticized Graham for advocating military engagement, suggesting that it is easy for him to call for such actions without personal stakes, as he has no children in the military. This internal dissent could impact Graham's standing among Republican voters as the primary approaches.

Newsweek

The South Carolina primary is scheduled for June 9, 2026. While current forecasts from the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the general election as "Safe Republican," the dynamics of the race may evolve as both parties ramp up their campaigns and voter sentiment shifts in the lead-up to the election.

Newsweek