Story perspectives

Poll Shows Lula, Bolsonaro in Tight Presidential Race

3/25/2026

Summary

Story summary

A recent AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll shows Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a technical tie.
Bolsonaro leads Lula by one percentage point in a simulated run-off, with 47.6% to Lula's 46.6%.
In first-round scenarios, Lula is projected to receive about 46% of the vote, while Bolsonaro's support ranges from 36% to 42%.
The poll surveyed 5,028 people from March 18-23, 2023, with a margin of error of 1 percentage point.
Lula seeks a fourth term after defeating Jair Bolsonaro in 2022.

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Story summary

A recent AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll shows Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a technical tie.
Bolsonaro leads Lula by one percentage point in a simulated run-off, with 47.6% to Lula's 46.6%.
In first-round scenarios, Lula is projected to receive about 46% of the vote, while Bolsonaro's support ranges from 36% to 42%.
The poll surveyed 5,028 people from March 18-23, 2023, with a margin of error of 1 percentage point.
Lula seeks a fourth term after defeating Jair Bolsonaro in 2022.