The Fall of El Fasher: A Study in International Inaction

The city of El Fasher in Sudan has faced a catastrophic siege and subsequent massacres, primarily attributed to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and supported by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Despite warnings and intelligence assessments indicating an impending genocide, both the United States and the United Kingdom failed to take decisive action to protect the civilian population.

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The UK’s Joint Analysis of Conflict and Stability (Jacs) was designed to assess potential genocidal threats but was not updated during the 18-month siege of El Fasher. Intelligence reports indicated that the RSF aimed to “eliminate” the city’s non-Arab population, yet the UK government did not act on this information. The last Jacs assessment for Sudan was dated 2019, reflecting a neglectful attitude that critics argue cost lives. In July 2023, following ethnic violence in nearby Geneina, intelligence agencies warned that El Fasher would face similar threats, but no intervention was initiated.

The Guardian

The UK, as the penholder for Sudan at the UN Security Council, held significant responsibility for civilian protection. However, internal discussions revealed a hesitance to intervene, with officials expressing doubts about the necessity of action. Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the Yale Humanitarian Research Lab, urged the deployment of a UN monitoring force, stating, “If we don’t, these people will die. I begged them.” The US also blocked intelligence assessments that could have triggered intervention, prioritizing its mutual defense agreement with the UAE over humanitarian concerns.

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Critics have condemned the inaction of both the UK and US governments. A parliamentary report highlighted the UK’s decision to remove the Darfur genocide from its official list of concerns, indicating a deprioritization of the region. Kholood Khair, a prominent analyst, expressed frustration with the UK’s reluctance to confront the UAE, stating that their indecision felt like “gaslighting.” Furthermore, Darfur’s governor, Minni Minnawi, repeatedly warned international officials that without intervention, tens of thousands would perish in El Fasher, yet his pleas went unheeded.

The Guardian

The UK government has faced criticism for its lack of response to warnings about the situation in El Fasher. A spokesperson from the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office emphasized the need for external support to cease immediately but did not address specific allegations regarding the UAE's involvement. Meanwhile, a US state department spokesperson declined to comment on alleged intelligence reports related to the situation.

The Guardian

There are conflicting accounts regarding the extent of the UAE's involvement in supplying weaponry to the RSF. While UK officials, including then Africa minister Andrew Mitchell, claimed to have “incontrovertible proof” of UAE arms supplies, the UAE categorically denied these allegations. Additionally, internal US assessments indicated that El Fasher was attacked with UAE-supplied weaponry, yet no sanctions were proposed against the UAE.

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• “The UK’s approach was a death sentence to the people of El Fasher.” — Unknown Parliamentarian

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• “I expressed my frustration with the UK government. They made it seem that we were crying wolf,” — Nathaniel Raymond, Yale Humanitarian Research Lab

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• “They were effectively saying: ‘We believe that saving lives is an imperative, but do we believe it enough?’” — Kholood Khair, Analyst

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• “Consequences? Zero,” — Diplomat commenting on the UN Security Council's inaction

The Guardian

As the situation in El Fasher continues to deteriorate, the international community faces increasing pressure to address the humanitarian crisis. The lack of intervention raises questions about the effectiveness of current diplomatic strategies and the prioritization of geopolitical alliances over human rights.

The Guardian