South Korea's Population Decline Shows Signs of Easing

In January 2025, South Korea recorded 26,916 births, an 11.7% increase from the previous year, marking the highest figure for January since 2019. This rise in births has contributed to a narrowing of the natural population decline, which decreased to 5,539, the smallest gap in four years. The country has experienced a continuous population decrease since its peak of 51.84 million in 2019, with a natural decline recorded for 75 consecutive months since November 2019. The latest figures indicate a significant improvement from previous months, where declines were notably higher, including 15,306 in January 2025 and 12,533 in December 2024.

Rising births slow Korea’s population declineThe Straits Times

The increase in births is attributed to a rebound in marriages, particularly among individuals in their 30s, who represent a significant portion of new parents. The total fertility rate has shown gradual recovery from a record low of 0.72 in 2023 to an estimated 0.8 for 2025, with January's monthly rate reaching 0.99, the highest since the government began compiling monthly data. This trend is believed to be influenced by delayed weddings during the COVID-19 pandemic, which are now translating into higher birth rates.

The Straits Times

Addressing the low birth rate is a key policy priority for President Lee Jae Myung’s administration, which has implemented measures such as cash incentives for childbirth, housing support for newlyweds, and expanded parental leave subsidies. Despite these efforts, the projected fertility rate remains significantly below the replacement level of 2.1 necessary for population stabilization without considering migration or mortality changes. The National Assembly Budget Office forecasts a total fertility rate of 0.9 by 2026, with expectations of continued growth through 2030.

The Straits TimesRising births slow Korea’s population decline

South Korea is facing a rapidly aging population, with 21.2% of its citizens aged 65 or older by 2025, officially categorizing it as a super-aged society. This demographic shift, combined with low fertility rates, is anticipated to lead to labor shortages, with projections indicating a potential shortfall of 8.2 million workers relative to job demand by 2033. The economically active population is expected to begin declining in 2030, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of the workforce.

The Straits TimesRising births slow Korea’s population decline

While the recent uptick in births has generated cautious optimism, experts emphasize that sustained government efforts will be crucial for any lasting reversal of the population decline. The National Assembly Budget Office warns that despite the positive trends, the total fertility rate is projected to remain well below the replacement level, indicating that a significant demographic challenge persists.

The Straits Times

• “Some observers say the country may be nearing a return to natural population growth.” — Demographic Expert

Rising births slow Korea’s population decline