Global Fertilizer Shortage Triggered by Iran War Disrupts Agricultural Supply Chains

The ongoing war in Iran has severely disrupted global fertilizer supplies, particularly affecting nitrogen fertilizer exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that typically handles about one-third of the world's fertilizer trade. Since the conflict escalated on February 28, 2026, fertilizer prices have surged, with the cost of granular urea rising from approximately $400 to $700 per metric ton, marking a 50% increase. This disruption has significant implications for farmers worldwide, especially as the spring planting season approaches in the Northern Hemisphere.

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The Fertilizer Institute predicts that U.S. farmers will face a shortfall of around 2 million tons of urea this spring, which is essential for crops like corn and wheat. The United States, while a leading producer of natural gas, relies on imports for about 18% of its nitrogen fertilizer needs. Countries such as India and Pakistan, heavily dependent on imports from the Gulf, are also experiencing production declines due to the war's impact on natural gas supplies. Veronica Nigh, chief economist at the Fertilizer Institute, noted that the situation is exacerbated by the simultaneous shortage of sulfur, another critical nutrient for fertilizer production.

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In response to the crisis, U.S. lawmakers are considering bipartisan legislation aimed at increasing transparency in fertilizer pricing. The Trump Administration has lifted barriers to fertilizer imports from Venezuela and Morocco to mitigate the impact. However, experts warn that there are no easy solutions to the supply chain disruptions, which are compounded by the fact that fertilizer production facilities operate at full capacity and take years to build.

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While reduced fertilizer use may have some environmental benefits, such as decreasing fertilizer runoff that contributes to water pollution, the broader implications for food security are concerning. The war has the potential to lead to lower agricultural yields globally, particularly in vulnerable regions that rely heavily on imports. Carl Skau from the World Food Program highlighted that the poorest farmers in the Northern Hemisphere are at risk, with potential crop failures looming if fertilizer supplies do not stabilize.

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Analysts predict that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it may take months for the fertilizer supply chain to recover fully. Chris Lawson of CRU Group estimates that around 30% of global urea trade is currently at risk due to the conflict. Furthermore, countries like China, which have restricted fertilizer exports to protect domestic supplies, add another layer of complexity to the situation.

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• “The food system is fragile, and it depends on stable fertilizer supply chains to ensure farmers can produce the food the world relies on,” — Hanna Opsahl-Ben Ammar, Yara International

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• “If agricultural yields were [hypothetically] impacted by 5% this year, I don't think we'll be looking at starvation, but it would certainly cause food inflation,” — Dawid Heyl, Ninety One

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• “The fertilizer isn’t there.” — Raj Patel, University of Texas

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The fertilizer crisis stemming from the war in Iran poses a significant threat to global food security, with far-reaching consequences for farmers and consumers alike. As the situation evolves, the agricultural sector must navigate these challenges to mitigate the impact on food production and prices.

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