Full Breakdown
Nevada Gubernatorial Race: Joe Lombardo and Aaron Ford in Statistical Tie
3/28/2026, 3:27:32 PM
Current Standings in the Race
Incumbent Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo, a Republican, is in a statistical dead heat with his Democratic opponent, Attorney General Aaron Ford, according to a recent poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights. The poll, which surveyed 845 registered voters from March 10 to March 13, shows Lombardo with 39% support compared to Ford's 38%, a difference that falls within the margin of error of 3.37%. Additionally, 6% of respondents indicated they would vote for a third-party candidate, while 17% remain undecided.
Voter Demographics and Preferences
The poll highlights significant demographic divides among voters. Ford leads among women by 6 percentage points, Latinos by 24 points, and voters in Washoe County by 12 points. Conversely, Lombardo has a stronger appeal among men, independents, and moderates, leading by 10 points among men and 6 points among independents. Both candidates draw their strongest support from their respective parties, with Lombardo performing better than the generic Republican candidate and Ford trailing behind the generic Democrat.
Implications of the Poll Results
Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, noted that while Lombardo is maintaining a competitive edge due to his personal brand and job image, Ford has a path to victory if he can consolidate support among undecided voters, who tend to be more moderate and independent. Noble emphasized that the candidate who can frame the race around issues of competence, affordability, and stability will likely gain an advantage.
Official Statements & Responses
In response to rising costs affecting Nevadans, Ford criticized Lombardo, stating, "Unlike Lombardo, I’ll put Nevadans and their wallets first—not Trump and his lunacy." Lombardo countered by attributing the fuel crisis to "bad policy decisions in California" and emphasized his efforts to diversify Nevada's fuel supply.
Criticism & Opposition
Critics argue that while Lombardo has a favorable rating of 49%, Ford's favorability is lower at 40%. This suggests that Ford still has room to grow his appeal, particularly among independents and moderates. The poll indicates that Ford's current coalition is strong but not fully consolidated, which could hinder his chances in the upcoming election.
What's Next
The primary election is scheduled for June 2026, followed by the general election in November. As the race progresses, both candidates will need to address the concerns of undecided voters and navigate the complexities of Nevada's political landscape, which is characterized by close, polarized contests.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Lombardo is doing what strong incumbents do — he’s running ahead of his party,” — Mike Noble, Founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights
- “What People Are Saying Noble, in part in the poll: “Ford absolutely has a path here, but the remaining undecideds are not easy partisans.” — Mike Noble, Founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights
- "This fuel crisis didn’t happen overnight." — Joe Lombardo, Governor of Nevada
- "Trump and his friend @JoeLombardoNV must live on another planet." — Aaron Ford, Attorney General of Nevada
