Gulf States Respond to Rising Threats from Iran-Backed Militias

Gulf countries, including Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, have expressed heightened concerns regarding potential attacks from Iran-backed militias and proxy armed groups. In a recent joint statement, these nations condemned Iranian assaults on their territories, which they attribute to both direct actions from Iran and operations conducted through proxy groups such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. The statement follows Kuwait's announcement of foiling a plot to assassinate state leaders, leading to the arrest of six suspects linked to Hezbollah.

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Historically, Iran has utilized proxy militias as a strategic tool to extend its influence and destabilize adversaries. While relations between Iran and several Gulf states had improved in recent years, the recent escalation of conflict between the U.S. and Israel against Iran has reignited fears of proxy activity in the region. Reports indicate a surge in missile and drone attacks from Iran, alongside an increase in internal incidents involving armed groups associated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

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In light of these threats, Gulf nations are intensifying their efforts to counter Iranian influence. Qatar has detained two cells linked to the Iranian regime, while Bahrain has arrested individuals accused of espionage for Iran. Kuwait's recent actions against a Hezbollah-linked cell underscore the urgency with which these countries are addressing perceived threats.

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The Gulf states have also called upon the Iraqi government to take decisive action against attacks launched from Iraqi territory by Iranian-backed factions. Saudi Arabia, which has faced violence from Hezbollah al-Hejaz, and Bahrain, which has long accused Iran of establishing proxy cells, view the situation as particularly precarious. Analysts warn that the threat from Iranian proxies, while not at the levels seen during the Iran-Iraq War, remains significant and could escalate if the conflict with Iran continues.

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The ongoing war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran has entered its 27th day, with reports of increasing attacks and conflicting diplomatic statements. U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that Iranian leaders are open to negotiations, a claim that Iran has firmly rejected. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has reiterated that Iran will not engage in talks under current conditions.

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As security concerns mount, the Federal Board of Intermediate and Secondary Education in Pakistan has postponed matriculation exams in Iran, Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain due to regional instability. The board is monitoring the situation closely and will reschedule exams once conditions improve.

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Experts, including Bilal Saab from the Trends US think tank, have highlighted the existential threat posed by Iranian proxies to Gulf states. Saab noted that the activation of sleeper cells could lead to a dual-front conflict for these nations, complicating their security landscape. The fear is that if the situation escalates, Gulf countries may be forced to adopt more aggressive stances against Iran, potentially provoking further retaliation.

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• “Bilal Saab, the senior managing director of the Trends US thinktank and a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration, said: “If this war escalates, the worst-case scenario for the Gulf countries is Iran activating their sleeper cells and these Shia militia movements in the region.” — Bilal Saab, Senior Managing Director, Trends US

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• “They are already dealing with the external threat of Iran’s missiles and drones, but things really fall apart when they also have to fight an internal foe.” — Bilal Saab, Senior Managing Director, Trends US

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As the conflict continues, the Gulf states remain vigilant, balancing their security needs against the potential for further escalation in the region.

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