Gulf States Confront Rising Threat from Iran-Backed Militias

Gulf countries, including Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, have expressed heightened concerns regarding potential attacks from Iran-backed militias and proxy armed groups. In a joint statement, these nations condemned Iranian assaults, both direct and through proxies, which they fear could destabilize their regimes and escalate the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Recent incidents, such as Kuwait's foiling of a plot to assassinate state leaders linked to Hezbollah, underscore the urgency of these concerns.

The Guardian

Historically, Iran has utilized proxy militias as a strategic tool to extend its influence and destabilize rival nations. Prominent groups include Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, with additional militias operating in Iraq and Syria. Although relations between Iran and Gulf states had improved in recent years, the recent escalation of U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran has prompted a resurgence of proxy activity in the Gulf region.

The Guardian

The Gulf states have called on the Iraqi government to take decisive action against attacks launched by Iranian-backed factions from Iraqi territory. The joint statement highlighted the threat posed by these groups, particularly to Saudi Arabia, which has faced violent attacks from Hezbollah al-Hejaz, and Bahrain, which has long accused Iran of establishing proxy cells within its borders. While the Houthis have stated their intention to remain uninvolved in the U.S.-Israeli conflict, the potential for increased Iranian proxy activity remains a significant concern.

The Guardian

Analysts, including Bilal Saab from the Trends US think tank, have noted that while the current threat level from Iranian proxies is not as severe as during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, the situation could deteriorate if the conflict with Iran escalates. Saab emphasized that the activation of sleeper cells by Iran's Revolutionary Guards poses an existential threat to Gulf states, potentially leading to a scenario where these militias operate with significant autonomy.

The Guardian

The Gulf nations are currently grappling with both external threats from Iranian missiles and drones and the potential for internal strife fueled by proxy militias. The dual challenge of facing an external aggressor while managing internal security threats complicates the geopolitical landscape for these countries. As tensions rise, Gulf leaders are weighing their options for responding to Iranian provocations, mindful of the risks of further escalation.

The Guardian

In their joint statement, the Gulf states urged the Iraqi government to take necessary measures to halt attacks from Iranian-backed militias, emphasizing the need to preserve regional stability. Bilal Saab articulated the gravity of the situation, stating, “If this war escalates, the worst-case scenario for the Gulf countries is Iran activating their sleeper cells and these Shia militia movements in the region.”

The Guardian

• “Bilal Saab, the senior managing director of the Trends US thinktank and a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration, said: “If this war escalates, the worst-case scenario for the Gulf countries is Iran activating their sleeper cells and these Shia militia movements in the region.” — Bilal Saab, Senior Managing Director, Trends US think tank

The Guardian

• “They are already dealing with the external threat of Iran’s missiles and drones, but things really fall apart when they also have to fight an internal foe.” — Bilal Saab, Senior Managing Director, Trends US think tank

The Guardian

While Gulf states have reported various incidents of thwarted plots and arrests linked to Iranian proxies, the extent of the threat remains debated among analysts. Some argue that the current situation is not as dire as in past conflicts, while others warn of the potential for significant escalation if tensions continue to rise.

The Guardian