Full Breakdown
MLB Home Run Prop Bets: March 29, 2026
3/30/2026, 11:59:15 AM
Key Players and Matchups
As Major League Baseball enters its 2026 season, several players are emerging as prime candidates for home run prop bets on March 29. Notably, Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh and Baltimore Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson are highlighted for their potential to hit home runs in their respective matchups. Both players have yet to record a home run this season, but their historical performances against specific pitchers suggest promising opportunities.
Cal Raleigh's Potential
Cal Raleigh, who hit 60 home runs in the 2025 season, is expected to continue his power-hitting ways in 2026. He faces off against Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Slade Cecconi, who struggled in the previous season with a 4.30 ERA and allowed 24 home runs in just 23 appearances. Raleigh's impressive .909 OPS and 38 home runs against right-handed pitching last season position him as a strong candidate to hit his first homer of the year at odds of +270.
Gunnar Henderson's Matchup
Gunnar Henderson is another player to watch, particularly in his matchup against Minnesota Twins right-hander Bailey Ober. Henderson has a successful track record against Ober, having homered in 13 at-bats against him. Ober's 5.10 ERA and 30 home runs allowed in 2025 further enhance Henderson's prospects, especially since 14 of his 17 home runs last season came against right-handed pitchers. Henderson is listed at +299 to hit a home run on Sunday.
Pete Crow-Armstrong's Strong Start
Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has yet to hit a home run in the 2026 season, is also a notable candidate. He has started the season strong, batting .444 with two runs scored and two RBIs. Crow-Armstrong faces Washington Nationals pitcher Jake Irvin, who had a difficult 2025 season, allowing 38 home runs and posting a 5.70 ERA. Crow-Armstrong's previous success against Irvin, including a home run and five RBIs in their matchups, makes him a compelling option at +263.
Official Statements & Responses
Experts emphasize the importance of analyzing historical data when considering home run prop bets early in the season. The performance of pitchers from the previous season is a critical factor in determining the likelihood of hitters achieving home runs. Betting analysts recommend focusing on matchups where pitchers have struggled with home runs, as seen with Cecconi and Ober.
Criticism & Opposition
Some analysts caution against placing heavy bets early in the season due to the limited data available. The unpredictability of player performances as the season begins can lead to unexpected outcomes, making it essential for bettors to exercise caution.
Verbatim Quotes
- “909 OPS and homered 38 times against right-handed pitching last season, so he’s more than capable of teeing off on Cecconi in this matchup.” — Peter Dewey, Sports Illustrated Betting
- “Henderson has a home run in 13 at bats against Ober in his career, and the Twins righty is coming off a brutal 2025 season.” — Peter Dewey, Sports Illustrated Betting
- “768 OPS while earning the first All-Star nod of his young career.” — Peter Dewey, Sports Illustrated Betting
As the MLB season progresses, these players and their matchups will be closely monitored by bettors looking to capitalize on favorable odds.
