NFL's Stance on Prediction Markets: A Call for Regulation

The National Football League (NFL) has formally requested that prediction market operators, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, refrain from offering trades on events that are susceptible to manipulation. In a letter sent to these operators, the NFL outlined specific types of offerings it finds objectionable, including trades based on announcers' comments, celebrity attendance at games, and events that can be predetermined, such as draft picks and player signings. The league's primary concern is to protect game participants from "unfair and unwanted allegations" associated with gambling and prediction markets.

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The NFL's objections align closely with its requests to traditional sportsbooks, but it also raised unique issues regarding trading on broadcaster mentions and celebrity appearances—areas not typically covered by conventional betting platforms. According to NFL spokesperson Miller, the league aims to distance itself from wagers that could exploit insider information, emphasizing the need for integrity in sports.

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The NFL's letter follows ongoing discussions with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal body overseeing prediction markets. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig indicated that while leagues can apply to launch prediction markets, the agency is working closely with them to identify contracts vulnerable to manipulation. Selig noted that trading on sports outcomes has always been legal, but previous administrations had been hesitant to allow it. Under his leadership, the CFTC is taking a more proactive approach to understanding market vulnerabilities.

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Miller stated that the NFL does not have a formal agreement with the CFTC but believes the regulator values the league's insights. The CFTC's collaboration with Major League Baseball (MLB) to share information and discuss market risks highlights the growing regulatory scrutiny in this area.

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In addition to the NFL's concerns, a bipartisan Senate bill introduced recently seeks to prohibit prediction markets from facilitating transactions that resemble sports betting. This legislative effort reflects broader apprehensions about the legality of prediction markets, as state regulators have also initiated legal challenges against these companies, arguing that they engage in illegal gambling practices.

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Miller confirmed that the NFL has not yet engaged with the new proposed legislation, maintaining that the league believes prediction markets require more regulatory guardrails before considering any partnerships. Other sports leagues, including MLB, the National Hockey League (NHL), the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), and Major League Soccer (MLS), have already formed partnerships with prediction markets, indicating a divergence in approach among different sports organizations.

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The NFL emphasized the importance of protecting the integrity of the sport in its communications regarding prediction markets. Miller stated, “We want to make sure that whatever is being done in this space, we can do our best to protect the integrity of the sport.”

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While the NFL's stance is clear, the ongoing legal battles and proposed legislation surrounding prediction markets indicate a complex regulatory landscape. The lack of engagement from the NFL with new legislative proposals raises questions about the league's future involvement in this evolving market.

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• “We're trying to stay as far as we can from some of those sorts of inside information wagers that could exist in this space.” — Miller, NFL Spokesperson

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• “If a league is telling us that a contract is going to be readily susceptible to manipulation and an exchange is still trying to certify that, of course we'll evaluate the risks there,” — Michael Selig, CFTC Chairman

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