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Taxpayers Anticipate Larger 2026 Refunds, But Changes Loom

3/31/2026

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Summary

Story summary

The Trump administration expects "very large refunds" for taxpayers in 2026.
IRS data show the average refund will rise from $3,221 to $3,571.
Analysts say taxpayers may receive smaller refunds due to changes in tax credits and withholding.
A report shows 48.8% under $100,000 will see increased refunds and 93.1% over $100,000 will benefit, while the disconnect stems from relief appearing as higher take-home pay rather than larger year-end refunds.

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Story summary

The Trump administration expects "very large refunds" for taxpayers in 2026.
IRS data show the average refund will rise from $3,221 to $3,571.
Analysts say taxpayers may receive smaller refunds due to changes in tax credits and withholding.
A report shows 48.8% under $100,000 will see increased refunds and 93.1% over $100,000 will benefit, while the disconnect stems from relief appearing as higher take-home pay rather than larger year-end refunds.