Story perspectives

U.S. Dollar Surges Amid Global Tensions and Oil Disruptions

3/31/2026

Summary

Dollar Rises Amid Tensions

The U.S. dollar is on track for its largest gain since July, driven by tensions.
The conflict has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, fueling volatility.
Emerging market currencies, especially the South Korean won, have declined significantly.
The Japanese yen is approaching intervention levels after its weakest point since July 2024.
Analysts attribute the dollar’s strength to safe-haven demand, while the euro and commodity currencies weaken.

Summary

Peso Declines Amid Tensions

The Philippine peso fell to a record low of 60.69 per dollar, intraday at 60.84, as the U.S. dollar strengthened amid fears of a prolonged Middle East conflict.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) kept its policy rate at 4.25% to support economic recovery despite inflation pressures.
Traders expect choppy trading around the 60–61 range as the BSP monitors thresholds for potential intervention.

History

Historical Context

The 1973 oil crisis, triggered by the OAPEC embargo in response to the Yom Kippur War, caused oil prices to quadruple, leading to a 60-70% reduction in Middle Eastern oil exports to the West. This crisis reshaped global economies, strengthening the U.S. dollar as a safe haven and highlighting vulnerabilities in energy security, a theme echoed in today's tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

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Dollar Rises Amid Tensions

The U.S. dollar is on track for its largest gain since July, driven by tensions.
The conflict has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, fueling volatility.
Emerging market currencies, especially the South Korean won, have declined significantly.
The Japanese yen is approaching intervention levels after its weakest point since July 2024.
Analysts attribute the dollar’s strength to safe-haven demand, while the euro and commodity currencies weaken.

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