Surge in Commodity Prices Amid Middle East Conflict

In March 2026, the prices of tungsten, sulfur, and helium have experienced significant increases, driven largely by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing Iran war. Tungsten prices surged to a record high of over $3,000 per metric ton unit, marking an increase of over 50% for the month and more than tripling since late December 2025. This surge is attributed to strong demand from the defense sector, as noted by Lewis Black, CEO of tungsten miner Almonty, who stated that there has been no notable change in demand despite the conflict.

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Almonty recently reopened its tungsten mine in Sangdong, South Korea, and plans to commence production in Montana later this year. Goldman Sachs analysts highlighted that the resilience of the Chinese supply chain is being tested, with a higher risk of disruption in chemicals and raw materials for manufacturers. The analysts noted that nearly 40 commodity-related meetings and site visits in China indicated a tightening market.

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Sulfur prices have also escalated, with sulfuric acid in Africa increasing by at least 30% since the onset of the Iran war. Goldman Sachs reported that sulfur prices in China rose approximately 13% to $621 per tonne as of March 26, 2026. Analysts Pan Yuya and Isaac Zhao warned that a blockade lasting 2-3 months could lead to a severe supply shock, especially given that 56% of China's sulfur imports originated from the Middle East in 2025.

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Helium prices have doubled since the beginning of the Iran war, with significant disruptions reported in Qatar, which produces about one-third of the world's helium. Shelley Jang from Fitch Ratings noted the challenges in tracking industry-wide helium prices due to the prevalence of long-term contracts. Christopher Ecclestone, a mining strategist, emphasized that the recent Iranian missile attacks have further complicated supply restoration efforts.

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HSBC analysts pointed out that sulfur prices were already on the rise before the conflict escalated, indicating a tightening market. They referred to the situation as a "super squeeze" in the sulfur market, warranting further examination. The overall market dynamics suggest that the geopolitical situation is exacerbating existing supply constraints across these commodities.

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The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led to unprecedented price increases in tungsten, sulfur, and helium, highlighting vulnerabilities in global supply chains. As demand remains robust, particularly from the defense sector, and with potential supply disruptions looming, the commodity markets are likely to face continued volatility in the near future.

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