Full Breakdown
Impact of the U.S.-Iran Conflict on South Asian Farmers
4/3/2026, 2:09:01 AM
Fertilizer Supply Chain Disruptions
The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran has led to significant disruptions in the global fertilizer supply chain, particularly affecting farmers in South Asia. As the war escalated in late February 2026, Iran's strategic closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical shipping route for oil and liquefied natural gas—has resulted in rising costs and scarcity of fertilizers essential for agricultural production. This has created a ripple effect, impacting farmers' livelihoods and food security across the region.
Farmers in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal are heavily reliant on fertilizers, with the agriculture sector employing millions and contributing significantly to their respective GDPs. For instance, in India, agriculture accounts for approximately $400 billion and supports over half the population. The sector's dependency on fertilizers, particularly nitrogen-based varieties, is profound, with about 30-35% of these supplies transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.
Economic Consequences for Farmers
The rising costs of fertilizers have forced farmers to make difficult decisions regarding crop management. Ramesh Kumar, a wheat farmer in Punjab, India, expressed concerns about balancing fertilizer costs with household expenses, stating, “If prices go up more, we will have to cut somewhere.” Similar sentiments were echoed by farmers across South Asia, who are already feeling the pressure of increased prices and uncertain supply. In Pakistan, wheat farmer Muneer Ahmad noted that any increase in fertilizer costs would affect everyone in the region.
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that many farmers are already operating on tight margins. For example, in Bangladesh, where agriculture contributes about 12-13% of GDP, farmers are increasingly exposed to international price swings. Mohammad Ibrahim, a farmer from Rangpur, highlighted the unpredictability of fertilizer availability and rising prices, stating, “Sometimes it is available, sometimes not.”
Government Responses and Challenges
Governments in South Asia have attempted to reassure farmers about fertilizer supplies. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced measures to diversify import sources and expand domestic production. However, farmers remain skeptical about these assurances, as many have already begun reducing fertilizer usage in anticipation of shortages. In Pakistan, officials have also expressed confidence in maintaining fertilizer supplies, yet the reality on the ground suggests a different story, with farmers like Ahmad feeling immediate impacts from rising costs.
In Bangladesh, Agriculture Secretary Rafiqul Mohammad indicated that the government is closely monitoring the situation and has plans to import additional fertilizer. Meanwhile, Nepal's Ministry of Agriculture has secured supplies for the upcoming rainy season but warned of potential delays due to the ongoing conflict.
Broader Implications
The implications of rising fertilizer costs extend beyond individual farmers. A reduction in fertilizer availability can lead to decreased crop yields, which in turn raises food prices—a critical issue in a region where households spend a significant portion of their income on food. The U.N. World Food Program has warned that prolonged high oil prices could exacerbate food insecurity, potentially affecting millions.
As the conflict continues, the agricultural sector faces a precarious future, with farmers caught in a cycle of rising costs and diminishing returns. The situation underscores the interconnectedness of global events and local economies, highlighting the urgent need for effective policy responses to mitigate the impact on vulnerable populations.
Verbatim Quotes
- “If prices go up more, we will have to cut somewhere,” — Ramesh Kumar, Farmer
- “Sometimes it is available, sometimes not,” — Mohammad Ibrahim, Farmer
- “They warn that even if the conflict were to end soon, it will take weeks or months to bring plants back online and normalize supply chains.” — Angie Craig, Ranking Member, House Agriculture Committee
- “farmers will be forced to either pay higher prices for fertilizer that they need or go with less and risk low production yields; either way their tight margins – already in the red for many farmers – will only worsen.” — Angie Craig, Ranking Member, House Agriculture Committee
