Full Breakdown
Early Trends in the 2026 MLB Season
4/1/2026, 9:42:32 PM
Overview of Early Season Performance
As the 2026 MLB regular season begins, it is still early to draw definitive conclusions about team and player performances. However, several notable trends have emerged in the first week, providing insights into player recoveries and pitching strategies.
Matt McLain's Recovery and Performance
Cincinnati Reds shortstop Matt McLain is showing signs of regaining his form from 2023 after a challenging couple of seasons. Following a shoulder surgery that sidelined him for the entire 2024 season, McLain returned in 2025 but struggled with a batting average of .220. Early indicators in 2026 are promising, as he has started the season with a .235 batting average, including a double and five walks. His bat speed has significantly improved, rising from 69.7 mph last year to 72.2 mph this year, marking one of the largest increases in the league. McLain's exit velocity has also reached a career high of 110.5 mph, suggesting a healthier shoulder and a potential return to his previous performance levels.
Fastball Usage Trends
Another trend observed in the early season is the potential resurgence of fastball usage among pitchers. Historically, while pitchers have been throwing harder, the percentage of fastballs thrown has declined. In 2021, fastballs accounted for 50.9% of pitches, but this dropped to 47.0% in 2025. However, the first week of the 2026 season has seen a slight uptick, with fastball usage rising to 48.2%. This increase, although modest, could indicate a shift back towards fastballs as teams reassess their pitching strategies after years of favoring breaking balls and offspeed pitches.
Implications of Early Trends
The early performance of players like McLain could significantly impact the Reds' season, providing a much-needed boost if he continues to improve. Similarly, the increase in fastball usage may alter how teams approach pitching throughout the season, potentially leading to a more aggressive style of play.
Official Statements & Responses
Matt McLain expressed optimism about his recovery, stating, "It actually felt 100% (last season). Everyone told me that you have to give yourself two years... I kind of believe it now." This sentiment reflects a broader understanding among players regarding the recovery timeline from significant injuries.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
While the increase in fastball usage is noted, it remains to be seen if this trend will sustain throughout the season. The cyclical nature of baseball means that early season data may not fully represent long-term strategies.
Verbatim Quotes
- “It actually felt 100% (last season). Everyone told me that you have to give yourself two years,” — Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds Shortstop
As the season progresses, these early trends will be closely monitored to determine their long-term implications for players and teams alike.
