Full Breakdown
Gulf Crisis Impacts South Asian Farmers Amid Fertiliser Shortages
4/2/2026, 2:27:25 PM
Fertiliser Supply Crisis Linked to Geopolitical Tensions
As the sowing season approaches in South Asia, farmers are grappling with rising fertiliser costs and supply uncertainties, largely influenced by the ongoing conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping lane through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes, has become a focal point of concern. Following the initial US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran's closure of this vital route has disrupted the supply of LNG, essential for producing nitrogen-based fertilisers.
Economic Dependence on Fertiliser
South Asia, home to nearly two billion people, heavily relies on fertiliser-intensive farming for staple crops like wheat and rice. In India, the agriculture sector, worth $400 billion, employs about 46% of the workforce, with over 100 million farming families directly dependent on it. Pakistan's agriculture contributes nearly 20% to its GDP, while in Bangladesh, it accounts for 12-13% of GDP. Nepal's agricultural sector contributes about 24% to its GDP, with all these countries relying on fertiliser imports, a significant portion of which transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Farmers' Concerns and Government Responses
Farmers across the region are already feeling the pinch. Ramesh Kumar, a wheat farmer in Punjab, India, expressed his anxiety over the rising costs and the impact on his family's financial stability. "If prices go up more, we will have to cut somewhere," he stated, highlighting the direct link between global events and local livelihoods. In response to the crisis, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi assured Parliament on March 23 that adequate arrangements for fertiliser supply have been made, emphasizing the government's efforts to diversify import sources and expand domestic production.
In Pakistan, Federal Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain announced proactive measures to monitor fertiliser supplies and expand domestic production. However, farmers like Muneer Ahmad remain skeptical, noting that any increase in costs is felt immediately. Similarly, in Bangladesh, Agriculture Secretary Rafiqul Mohammad confirmed that the government is closely monitoring the situation, planning to import additional urea to ensure supply stability.
Rising Food Prices and Broader Implications
The implications of the fertiliser supply crisis extend beyond individual farmers. A reduction in fertiliser availability or an increase in costs could lead to lower crop yields, subsequently driving up food prices in a region where households spend a significant portion of their income on food. Farmers are already making difficult choices; for instance, Kumar has decided to use less fertiliser this season despite the risk of reduced yields.
Conflicting Reports on Supply Stability
While governments in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal have expressed confidence in their fertiliser supplies, farmers report growing uncertainty. In Nepal, Ram Krishna Shrestha from the Ministry of Agriculture warned of potential delays in shipments due to the ongoing crisis. This discrepancy between official assurances and on-the-ground realities highlights the fragility of the situation.
Verbatim Quotes
- “If prices go up more, we will have to cut somewhere,” — Ramesh Kumar, Farmer
- “Even before shortages happen, fertiliser becomes expensive.” — Ghulam Rasool, Farmer
- “If fertiliser does not arrive on time, the crop suffers,” — Meghnath Aryal, Farmer
- “We hear about war, about shipping problems,” — Ghulam Rasool, Farmer
As the situation evolves, farmers across South Asia remain on edge, facing the dual challenges of geopolitical instability and economic pressures that threaten their livelihoods and food security.
