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Walmart Recession Signal Indicates Potential U.S. Economic Slowdown

4/2/2026

45 10 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

Jim Paulsen, a veteran economist, says the Walmart Recession Signal (WRS) indicates a U.S. slowdown.
The Walmart Recession Signal compares Walmart's stock to luxury stocks and links budget shifts to rising stress.
Walmart's stock has risen 40% over the past year, while luxury stocks have declined.
Paulsen says the trend often precedes downturns and that the slowdown will be significant only if the Iran war is resolved.

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Story summary

Jim Paulsen, a veteran economist, says the Walmart Recession Signal (WRS) indicates a U.S. slowdown.
The Walmart Recession Signal compares Walmart's stock to luxury stocks and links budget shifts to rising stress.
Walmart's stock has risen 40% over the past year, while luxury stocks have declined.
Paulsen says the trend often precedes downturns and that the slowdown will be significant only if the Iran war is resolved.