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UK Firms Brace for 3.5% Inflation Amid Conflict

4/3/2026

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Story summary
  • UK businesses are adjusting to inflation expectations of 3.5% over the next year, driven by the ongoing Middle East conflict.
  • The Bank of England's survey shows firms expect fewer rate cuts, with only one anticipated in the next year.
  • Food inflation could reach 9% by year-end due to higher production costs and supply-chain disruptions.
  • The conflict has contracted employment expectations and limited pricing power, signaling a fragile economy.