Impact of the Iran Conflict on Fertiliser Supply and Food Security in South Asia

The ongoing conflict in Iran, particularly its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is causing significant disruptions in global fertiliser supplies, which is critically impacting agricultural sectors in South Asia, notably India and Sri Lanka. Farmers in these regions are expressing deep concerns about the potential for reduced crop yields due to a shortage of essential fertilisers, particularly urea, which is vital for rice and other staple crops.

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India, the world's second-largest fertiliser consumer, relies heavily on imported fertilisers and natural gas, with annual consumption exceeding 60 million tonnes. The war in Iran has already led to a 30% reduction in gas supplies to fertiliser production facilities in India, raising alarms among farmers about the upcoming kharif season, which begins in June. Agricultural economist Devinder Sharma noted that any disruption in fertiliser supply creates immediate anxiety among farmers, who are already facing financial pressures.

The Guardian

Gurvinder Singh, a farmer from Punjab, articulated the fears shared by many in the agricultural community: “If we don’t get fertilisers, there will be less yield. That will affect my entire family and the entire region.” Similarly, Tejveer Singh from Ambala highlighted the panic-induced hoarding of fertilisers, despite their limited shelf life. In Sri Lanka, farmers like P Amila are also feeling the strain, with some opting not to plant crops due to fears of escalating costs and debt.

The Guardian

Despite government assurances that fertiliser stocks are sufficient, many farmers remain skeptical. Aparna S Sharma, a senior official in the Department of Fertilisers, claimed that buffer stocks are higher than last year, yet farmers continue to express doubt. Anuradha Tennakoon, chairman of the National Agrarian Unity in Sri Lanka, criticized the government's statements, asserting that the reality on the ground contradicts official claims, stating, “There are no stocks.”

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The World Food Programme has warned that if the conflict continues, an additional 45 million people could face acute food insecurity. The potential for reduced yields in staple crops like rice could lead to significant food shortages, particularly in countries like India and Sri Lanka, which are already vulnerable due to their reliance on imported fertilisers. The situation is exacerbated by rising costs and the looming threat of a broader food crisis.

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While government officials maintain that fertiliser production is operating normally, reports from farmers suggest otherwise. Some farmers are already experiencing price increases and shortages, leading to a lack of confidence in the official narrative. The disparity between government assurances and farmers' experiences raises questions about the actual state of fertiliser supplies.

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• “We are praying this war stops because it will not spare us either,” — Gurvinder Singh, Farmer

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• “In my 35 years in this business, I have not seen such panic,” — Prakash Limbuyya Swami, Fertiliser Retailer

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• “This is the most volatile situation I have faced in 30 years of farming,” — P Amila, Farmer

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• “If this yala season is affected, there is a serious food security issue.” — Anuradha Tennakoon, Chairman of the National Agrarian Unity

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The unfolding situation highlights the interconnectedness of global conflicts and local agricultural stability, with the potential for far-reaching consequences on food security in South Asia.

The Guardian