Southeast Asia's Geopolitical Shift: Preference for China Over the U.S.

A recent survey conducted by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute reveals a significant shift in Southeast Asia's geopolitical alignment, with 52% of respondents indicating a preference to align with China over the United States, which garnered 48%. This marks a reversal from 2025, when the U.S. was favored. The survey, conducted between January 5 and February 20, 2026, included 2,008 respondents from all 11 ASEAN member states, including Timor-Leste.

Southeast Asia leans toward China over US, 2026 survey finds

The survey highlights growing unease regarding U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policies, which have become the primary geopolitical concern for ASEAN, cited by 51.9% of respondents. This concern surpasses fears related to aggressive actions in the South China Sea (48.2%) and global scam operations (51.4%). The findings suggest that the perception of U.S. unpredictability and its transactional approach to international relations have contributed to declining confidence in American leadership.

The Straits Times

China's position as the dominant economic and political force in Southeast Asia is underscored by 55.9% of respondents identifying it as the most influential economic power and 40% as the leading political-strategic power. However, this influence is accompanied by apprehensions regarding China's interference in domestic affairs, which emerged as the top concern for 30.3% of respondents. The survey indicates that while Southeast Asia recognizes China's structural power, there is a desire for it to exercise restraint and adhere to international law.

A Harder Balance to Keep in Southeast Asia

Despite the preference for China, the survey indicates a strong inclination among ASEAN members to maintain strategic autonomy. A majority (55.2%) supports stronger unity to resist pressures from major powers, while only 24.1% advocate for a non-aligned stance. This reflects a broader desire for balance rather than outright alignment, as regional leaders navigate the complexities of U.S.-China rivalry.

The Straits Times

The survey results reveal significant variations in preferences among ASEAN countries. For instance, Indonesia (80.1%), Malaysia (68%), and Singapore (66.3%) showed strong support for China, while the Philippines (76.8%) and Vietnam (59.2%) leaned towards the U.S. This divergence is largely attributed to economic dependencies and security ties, with nations reliant on China favoring Beijing, while those with closer security relationships with the U.S. remain aligned with Washington.

Southeast Asia leans toward China over US, 2026 survey findsA Harder Balance to Keep in Southeast AsiaThe Straits Times

Joanne Lin, a senior fellow at ISEAS, noted that the survey results reflect a region that is "uneasy about both major powers," emphasizing the need for ASEAN to focus on internal cohesion to effectively manage its relationships with China and the U.S. Professor Herman Kraft from the University of the Philippines highlighted that strengthening ASEAN's internal unity could enhance its ability to navigate the pressures from both superpowers.

A Harder Balance to Keep in Southeast Asia

Critics of U.S. policies in the region express concerns that American economic and military power may threaten national interests and sovereignty, with 35% of respondents citing this as a reason for their distrust. The survey underscores a growing sentiment that ASEAN's traditional neutrality is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain amid rising external pressures and internal constraints.

The Straits Times

The 2026 survey results illustrate a complex and evolving geopolitical landscape in Southeast Asia, characterized by a nuanced preference for China amid significant concerns about U.S. leadership. As regional dynamics continue to shift, ASEAN's ability to maintain strategic autonomy while addressing the challenges posed by both superpowers will be crucial for its future stability and cohesion.

A Harder Balance to Keep in Southeast Asia