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US Economy May Be in Recession, Warns Moody's Economist

4/7/2026

Summary

Story summary

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, warns the US economy may have already entered a recession, based on the Vicious Cycle Index (VCI).
The VCI tracks labor force participation and signals high recession risk.
March added 178,000 jobs, while February saw a 92,000-job decline, indicating employment volatility.
Oil prices could rise above $125 per barrel, with crude trading near $110.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions with Iran contribute to economic uncertainty.

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Story summary

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, warns the US economy may have already entered a recession, based on the Vicious Cycle Index (VCI).
The VCI tracks labor force participation and signals high recession risk.
March added 178,000 jobs, while February saw a 92,000-job decline, indicating employment volatility.
Oil prices could rise above $125 per barrel, with crude trading near $110.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions with Iran contribute to economic uncertainty.