Decline in U.S. Durable Goods Orders Amid Economic Uncertainty

In February 2026, U.S. durable goods orders fell by 1.4%, amounting to $315.5 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This decline follows a 0.5% decrease in January and marks the third consecutive monthly drop in orders. The decline was primarily driven by a significant 5.4% decrease in transportation equipment orders, which fell by $6.1 billion to $106.1 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders actually increased by 0.8%, indicating some resilience in other sectors.

US Durable Goods Orders decline 1.4% to $315.5 billion in February

The decline in durable goods orders comes amid broader economic concerns, particularly related to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has led to rising oil prices and disrupted supply chains. Economists are predicting a cautious approach from businesses in the coming months as they assess the impact of elevated energy prices. Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, noted that firms may be hesitant to invest further until the situation stabilizes.

Reuters

Despite the negative report on durable goods, the U.S. Dollar's performance remained relatively stable, with the USD Index slightly lower at 99.92. However, U.S. stock markets reacted negatively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping around 200 points, reflecting investor concerns over macroeconomic uncertainty.

Benzinga

The Commerce Department reported an increase in new orders for core capital goods, which rose by 0.6% in February, suggesting some strength in business spending on equipment. This increase follows a downwardly revised 0.4% drop in January. Notably, orders for primary metals and fabricated metal products saw gains, while orders for machinery surged by 1.5%. However, the overall sentiment remains cautious, with some economists predicting a slowdown in business investment growth due to geopolitical tensions.

ReutersUS Durable Goods Orders decline 1.4% to $315.5 billion in FebruaryBenzinga

Economists have expressed concerns that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could further hamper shipments and overall economic growth. Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics, highlighted the risks to business equipment investment growth, which was previously forecasted to accelerate. Goldman Sachs has also adjusted its GDP growth estimate downward by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% annualized, reflecting these uncertainties.

Reuters

• “Durable goods spending does not like elevated uncertainty, less accommodative financial conditions, weaker sentiment, cost pressures and supply chain problems – all of which are evident since the start of the conflict,” — Oren Klachkin, Financial Market Economist at Nationwide

Reuters

• “I suspect that firms turned cautious again in March, and likely April, waiting to see how high energy prices would move and for how long,” — Stephen Stanley, Chief U.S. Economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets

Reuters

The decline in U.S. durable goods orders in February reflects a complex interplay of economic factors, including geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties. While some sectors show resilience, the overall outlook remains cautious as businesses navigate a challenging economic landscape.

Reuters