Houthis' Strategic Position and Regional Implications

The Houthis, a Yemeni militant group, have issued warnings regarding the potential closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical maritime passage. This threat comes amid heightened tensions in the region, particularly with Iran's ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Inbal Nissim-Louvton, a Yemen expert from the Open University and the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, noted that the Houthis' actions are likely influencing Gulf states' military responses to Iranian aggression. Senior Houthi leader Mohammed Ali Al Houthi stated that the group would refrain from attacking Saudi Red Sea ports as long as Riyadh does not align with the United States and Israel against Yemen. Al Houthi emphasized that their objective is to prevent the Red Sea from being utilized militarily against Muslim nations.

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The Houthis' military capabilities, while not as robust as those of Hezbollah or Hamas, still pose a significant threat to Saudi Arabia, which has faced numerous attacks from Iran. Nissim-Louvton highlighted that the potential for damage to Saudi infrastructure, such as airports and oil facilities, is a critical consideration for Riyadh. This threat has prompted Saudi Arabia to pursue diplomatic avenues with the Houthis and seek to renew relations with Iran, facilitated by China. The 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities serve as a reminder of the vulnerabilities faced by the kingdom.

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Despite their threats, the Houthis appear to be exercising caution. Nissim-Louvton explained that while the group seeks legitimacy within Iran's "Axis of Resistance," they are reluctant to escalate their actions significantly. The Houthis have indicated that their decisions are made independently of Tehran, distinguishing themselves from typical proxy groups. This cautious approach may stem from an understanding of the potential consequences of a broader conflict, which could involve Gulf states and further destabilize the region.

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The implications of a conflict involving the Houthis extend beyond military considerations. Nissim-Louvton warned that closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could exacerbate Yemen's already dire humanitarian crisis, potentially leading to a situation worse than that experienced during the civil war. An all-out war could severely hinder Yemen's ability to import essential food and medical supplies, further endangering the civilian population.

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In response to the escalating tensions, regional actors are weighing their options carefully. The Houthis' threats have prompted discussions among Gulf states regarding their military strategies and diplomatic relations. Nissim-Louvton noted that any involvement from Gulf states or European nations could significantly alter the dynamics of the conflict.

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• “There is no intention to target any Muslim country except in response to aggression against Yemen,” — Mohammed Ali Al Houthi, Senior Houthi Leader

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• “This was one of the things that drove Saudi Arabia to pursue, again, a diplomatic route with the Houthis, and also to try and renew diplomatic relations with Iran, with the help of China…it had an effect, whether it was the Houthis or Iran, it had an effect on the way that they perceived the Houthis. So it's going to be enough of a headache for them to take into [consideration], even though it's not as big as the Iranian threat.” — Inbal Nissim-Louvton, Yemen Expert

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• “ Expanding the conflict could also see the Horn of Africa dragged into the war, she warned.” — Inbal Nissim-Louvton, Yemen Expert

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While the Houthis have threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, there is no indication that they have taken concrete steps to do so. Additionally, the extent of their military capabilities compared to Iran's remains a subject of debate among experts. The potential for a broader conflict involving Gulf states and the humanitarian impact on Yemen are critical areas requiring further exploration.

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