Long COVID's Economic Impact on OECD Countries

New research from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) indicates that long COVID is projected to cost member countries approximately $135 billion annually over the next decade. This figure encompasses direct healthcare costs and the broader economic implications of reduced workforce participation and productivity. The OECD warns that economic growth could decline by as much as 0.2% due to the ongoing effects of the virus, which continues to affect millions.

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Long COVID refers to a range of symptoms that persist for weeks or months following an initial COVID-19 infection. Symptoms can include fatigue, joint pain, breathlessness, headaches, and cognitive difficulties, often referred to as "brain fog." The OECD estimates that about 5.3% of the total population in its member countries experienced long COVID at the pandemic's peak in 2021, affecting roughly 75 million individuals. While the prevalence of long COVID has decreased since then, the OECD projects that healthcare costs associated with the condition will remain around $11 billion per year from 2025 to 2035.

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The OECD report highlights that the indirect economic costs of long COVID are expected to surpass direct healthcare expenses from 2025 to 2035. Employment disruptions, premature exits from the workforce, and diminished productivity are significant factors contributing to this economic burden. The report emphasizes that long COVID will continue to hinder workforce participation and productivity, particularly in the context of an aging population and modest economic growth.

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The OECD report underscores the need for sustained attention to long COVID, stating, "Sustained momentum is necessary, as addressing these conditions benefits both immediate patient-centred agendas and long-term preparedness for future pandemic scenarios." The authors call for improved recognition, diagnosis, and care for long COVID, which remains uneven across countries. They stress the importance of collecting high-quality national data to inform effective policy responses.

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Despite the OECD's findings, there are concerns regarding the diminishing political and financial focus on long COVID. Critics argue that as the pandemic recedes from public consciousness, the urgency to address long COVID may wane, potentially leaving millions without adequate support or treatment options.

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Looking ahead, the OECD projects that long COVID prevalence may stabilize at around 0.6% to 1.0% of the OECD population over the next decade. The report calls for countries to prioritize data collection and policy planning to address the long-term consequences of COVID-19 effectively. The lessons learned from the long COVID experience are deemed crucial for enhancing preparedness for future pandemics.

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• “Long COVID will continue to dent workforce participation and productivity at a time of modest economic growth and population ageing,” — OECD Report

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• “The COVID-19 response revealed that long-term consequences of infection were often neglected in the early stages, and risked being overlooked as the pandemic entered the post-acute recovery phase,” — OECD Report

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