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Harvard Economist: Iran War to Drive Interest Rates Higher

4/9/2026

Summary

Story summary

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff warns the Iran war will likely push interest rates higher.
He attributes rising oil prices and inflationary pressures lifting yields and mortgage rates.
Rogoff says increased military spending and geopolitical fragmentation are contributing factors.
He notes the Strait of Hormuz as a symbol of trade fragmentation that could elevate rates.
Rogoff predicts oil prices may stay high for a year due to Middle East disruptions.

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Story summary

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff warns the Iran war will likely push interest rates higher.
He attributes rising oil prices and inflationary pressures lifting yields and mortgage rates.
Rogoff says increased military spending and geopolitical fragmentation are contributing factors.
He notes the Strait of Hormuz as a symbol of trade fragmentation that could elevate rates.
Rogoff predicts oil prices may stay high for a year due to Middle East disruptions.