U.S. Fertility Rate Hits Record Low in 2025

The United States has experienced a significant decline in fertility rates, reaching a record low in 2025. According to provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the fertility rate fell to 53.1 births per 1,000 women of reproductive age, down from 53.8 in 2024. This marks a nearly 20% decrease over the past two decades, with approximately 3.6 million babies born in 2025, a 1% drop from the previous year. The trend of declining fertility began around 2007, coinciding with the Great Recession, and has continued despite economic recovery.

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Experts attribute the ongoing decline in fertility rates to a combination of social, economic, and personal factors. Dr. Alison Gemmill, an associate professor at UCLA, highlights that many women are delaying childbirth due to concerns about financial stability, partnership dynamics, and broader societal issues such as climate change and healthcare quality. The desire for children remains strong, but prospective parents are increasingly prioritizing family and financial security before starting families.

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The data indicates that while birth rates among women aged 30 and older have increased, this has not compensated for the significant declines among younger women. For instance, the birth rate for women aged 25 to 29 fell by 4.4%, while rates for teenagers dropped by 7%, reaching historic lows.

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The decline in fertility rates poses potential long-term economic challenges. Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, notes that a sustained drop in birth rates could hinder economic growth, particularly as the workforce shrinks. The U.S. population growth rate fell from over 1% in 2023 and 2024 to just 0.3% in 2025, largely due to reduced immigration policies under the Trump administration. This demographic shift could impact Social Security funding, as fewer workers will be available to support a growing retiree population.

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The Trump administration has actively sought to reverse declining birth rates through various policies, including tax-advantaged savings accounts for newborns and increased access to reproductive technologies like in vitro fertilization (IVF). Despite these efforts, the fertility rate continues to decline, prompting discussions among experts about the need for a more nuanced understanding of family planning and reproductive choices.

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Critics argue that the focus on increasing birth rates may overlook the complex realities faced by potential parents. Dr. Gemmill emphasizes the importance of understanding individual circumstances rather than simply targeting the fertility rate. Many women express a desire for children but prefer to wait until they find suitable partners or achieve financial stability.

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As the U.S. continues to grapple with these demographic changes, attention will turn to the cohort of individuals born in the 1990s, now in their late 20s and early 30s. Their reproductive choices may significantly influence future fertility trends, as they navigate the challenges of modern parenthood amidst shifting societal norms.

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• “It’s very much that they want children, but that they want them either in the context of a family or in a context of financial security, and they’re willing to wait in the hopes that they not need to compromise.” — Dr. Alison Gemmill, UCLA School of Public Health

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• “The highly competitive and inequitable world that we live in has made many future parents feel that they need to give more, that parenting requires a lot more of your time and money than 20 years ago.” — Dr. Alison Gemmill, UCLA School of Public Health

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• “If immigration was zero, the workforce would still be growing for the next few years by just about 0.1% to 0.2% a year,” — Samuel Tombs, Pantheon Macroeconomics

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• “Not everybody wants to have children. But if they do, they should have the information to be able to make those decisions.” — Dr. Sigal Klipstein, InVia Fertility Specialists

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