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61% Chance of Strong El Niño This Summer

4/10/2026

42 4 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 61% chance of a significant El Niño developing between May and July.
There is a 25% chance it could become a very strong El Niño.
The forecast follows the end of La Niña, which influenced recent winter weather.
El Niño can affect global weather patterns, particularly in California, where winters are usually wetter.

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Story summary

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 61% chance of a significant El Niño developing between May and July.
There is a 25% chance it could become a very strong El Niño.
The forecast follows the end of La Niña, which influenced recent winter weather.
El Niño can affect global weather patterns, particularly in California, where winters are usually wetter.