Iran's Strategic Control Over the Strait of Hormuz Amid Ceasefire Tensions

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage for global oil supply, has become a focal point of geopolitical tension following a recent ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Despite the truce, Iran has maintained a tight grip on the strait, leveraging its control to exert influence over international shipping and energy markets.

‘Worth more than the nuclear program’: Iran flexes its new power over Strait of Hormuz

Approximately 20% of the world's seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is only about 21 kilometers wide at its narrowest point. Following the outbreak of hostilities on February 28, 2026, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) imposed restrictions on vessel traffic, effectively closing the strait to ships associated with the U.S. and its allies. This closure has resulted in a significant drop in maritime traffic, with only a handful of vessels permitted to pass under what Iran has termed "regulated passage."

‘Worth more than the nuclear program’: Iran flexes its new power over Strait of Hormuz

Professor Mehran Kamrava of Georgetown University highlights that Iran's strategy regarding the strait is heavily influenced by the Khatam al-Anbiya, a key security decision-making body within the IRGC. This institution plays a crucial role in shaping Iran's military and diplomatic strategies, particularly in the context of ongoing tensions with the U.S. and Israel.

EuronewsManagement of Strait of Hormuz has entered new stage: IRGCIran’s Hormuz Gambit: The Strait as a Weapon of Jihadist EndurancePBS News HourStrait of Hormuz is Iran’s ‘nuclear weapon’ that forced US retreat: Russia’s MedvedevThe HillTND - The National Desk

The economic ramifications of Iran's control over the strait are profound. Brent crude oil prices surged to between $90 and $120 per barrel following the closure, with Gulf exports plummeting by over 90%. Analysts estimate that this disruption could shave up to three percentage points off global economic growth in the second quarter of 2026. Iran's proposed tolls for passage through the strait, potentially amounting to $2 million per vessel, could generate substantial revenue, further solidifying its economic leverage.

The Hill

Global leaders have expressed concern over Iran's actions. The United Kingdom's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas have both emphasized the importance of maintaining freedom of navigation in the strait. Kallas warned that allowing Iran to impose tolls could set a dangerous precedent for international waters. Meanwhile, the U.S. administration, led by President Donald Trump, has issued stern warnings against Iran's tolling proposals, labeling them as "illegal" and "dangerous."

Euronews

Critics of the U.S. approach argue that the current situation reflects a strategic defeat for Washington. Former U.S. officials involved in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have noted that the U.S. has inadvertently empowered Iran by allowing it to demonstrate its ability to control the strait. This newfound leverage complicates future negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program and regional influence.

The Guardian

Despite the ceasefire, conflicting reports have emerged regarding the status of the strait. While U.S. officials claim an uptick in vessel traffic, Iranian sources maintain that stringent controls remain in place. The lack of clarity surrounding the terms of the ceasefire and the ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon further complicate the situation.

TND - The National Desk

As negotiations continue, a U.S. delegation is expected to meet with Iranian officials in Islamabad, Pakistan, to discuss the future of the ceasefire and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. The outcome of these discussions will be critical in determining whether Iran's control over the strait will be formalized or challenged.

Management of Strait of Hormuz has entered new stage: IRGC

• “But one thing is certain—Iran has tested its nuclear weapons. It is called the Strait of Hormuz. Its potential is inexhaustible,” — Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council

Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s ‘nuclear weapon’ that forced US retreat: Russia’s Medvedev

• “freedom of navigation in international waters is a common good, a common good of humanity that should not be hindered by any obstacles or passage rights.” — Kaja Kallas, EU Foreign Policy Chief

Euronews

• “The strait of Hormuz is such a good strategic deterrent [and] to an extent it makes the nuclear programme less crucial,” — Alan Eyre, Former U.S. Diplomat

The Guardian

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains precarious, with Iran's strategic maneuvers posing significant challenges for U.S. foreign policy and global energy security.

Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s ‘nuclear weapon’ that forced US retreat: Russia’s Medvedev