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World Bank Warns of Economic Fallout from Middle East Conflict

4/11/2026

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Summary

Story summary

World Bank President Ajay Banga warns a ceasefire by U.S. President Donald Trump may not prevent economic fallout from the Middle East conflict.
Global growth could decline by up to 1 percentage point if the conflict persists.
Inflation could rise by 200 to 300 basis points.
The war has disrupted oil and gas supplies, raising prices by 50%.
Banga urges peace negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz reopening to restore trade.

History

Historical Context

The 1973 Oil Crisis began when the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) imposed an embargo in response to U.S. support for Israel during the Yom Kippur War. This led to a 400% increase in oil prices and significant economic turmoil, marking the first major global recession since the Great Depression. Today, similar geopolitical tensions threaten to impact global growth and inflation.

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Story summary

World Bank President Ajay Banga warns a ceasefire by U.S. President Donald Trump may not prevent economic fallout from the Middle East conflict.
Global growth could decline by up to 1 percentage point if the conflict persists.
Inflation could rise by 200 to 300 basis points.
The war has disrupted oil and gas supplies, raising prices by 50%.
Banga urges peace negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz reopening to restore trade.

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