Rise of Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia: A New Threat in Europe

A newly emerged group, Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI), has claimed responsibility for a series of attacks targeting Jewish communities and American interests across Europe. The incidents include an arson attack on ambulances in the United Kingdom, an explosion outside a synagogue in Belgium, and a foiled bombing attempt at a Bank of America office in France. HAYI surfaced online in March 2026, shortly after the escalation of conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, raising questions about its authenticity and potential ties to Iranian state actors.

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Counterterrorism experts suggest that HAYI's operations resemble hybrid warfare tactics previously associated with Russia, where non-state actors are recruited to conduct sabotage for financial incentives. Thomas Renard, a counterterrorism expert, noted that Iran appears to be adopting similar methods, utilizing intermediaries to maintain plausible deniability. Martha Turnbull from the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats emphasized the growing Iranian threat in Europe, particularly against dissidents and Jewish targets.

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The group has claimed responsibility for multiple attacks across four countries: the Netherlands, Belgium, France, and the UK. In the Netherlands, HAYI was linked to an explosion outside a Rotterdam synagogue and damage to a Jewish school in Amsterdam. Dutch authorities are investigating potential Iranian involvement, while French prosecutors are examining links to HAYI regarding the attempted bombing in Paris. In the UK, the arson of ambulances owned by a Jewish charity has raised alarms, with officials acknowledging the serious nature of the threat posed by Iranian proxies.

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Reports indicate that HAYI may be utilizing a model of "criminal proxies," where individuals are recruited through social media platforms like Snapchat and offered small payments to carry out attacks. This approach lowers the barriers for participation in terrorism, making it accessible to economically vulnerable individuals. The commodification of violence, where financial incentives drive participation, complicates counterterrorism efforts and blurs the lines between organized crime and political violence.

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While some experts argue that HAYI's activities indicate a direct link to Iranian state-sponsored terrorism, others caution against attributing these attacks solely to state actors. Political activist Babak Darbiki pointed out that rising tensions between Jewish and Palestinian groups could also be influencing these incidents. Additionally, the lack of a formal structure within HAYI raises questions about its operational independence and the extent of Iranian involvement.

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European authorities are taking the threat seriously, with Belgium's Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis maintaining a "serious" terror threat level. The European Union's Europol agency has noted an increasing risk of small-scale attacks, while Israel's National Security Council has issued travel warnings for its citizens due to heightened threats from Iran and its proxies. As the conflict in the Middle East continues, experts warn that the Iranian threat may escalate, necessitating a reevaluation of counterterrorism strategies to address the evolving landscape of hybrid warfare.

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• “For now, we are still in the realm of speculation. But there are strong signals that this could be assisted by a foreign country, and Iran would top the list of the potential contenders.” — Thomas Renard, Counterterrorism Expert

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• “These attacks have shown the continued focus of the Iranian regime on dissidents, the Iranian diaspora, and, more recently, Jewish and Israeli targets,” — Martha Turnbull, Director, Hybrid CoE

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• “This dynamic reduces the barrier to entry for terrorism, making it accessible to people who might not otherwise get involved in ideological extremism.” — Security Analyst

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The emergence of HAYI underscores a significant shift in how terrorist operations are conceived and executed, reflecting broader trends in the hybrid threat landscape that require urgent attention from security agencies worldwide.

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