Full Breakdown
Impact of the US-Israel War on UK Fuel Prices
4/13/2026, 9:21:38 PM
Rising Fuel Costs Amid Conflict
Motorists in the UK have experienced significant increases in fuel prices due to the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran, which began on February 28, 2026. The conflict has led to a surge in wholesale oil and gas prices, primarily due to disruptions in energy production and transportation across the Middle East. Following the announcement of a temporary ceasefire by US President Donald Trump on April 7, 2026, wholesale prices dropped; however, retail prices at the pump have continued to rise, driven by uncertainty regarding the ceasefire's sustainability and failed peace talks between the US and Iran.
As of April 13, 2026, petrol prices reached an average of 158.27p per litre, while diesel prices hit 191.5p per litre. The RAC reported that prices had increased for 43 consecutive days, marking the longest streak of price hikes on record. Analysts noted that every $10 increase in the price of oil typically results in a 7p increase per litre at the pump. The price of Brent crude, a global oil benchmark, has fluctuated dramatically, rising from $73 to nearly $120 per barrel since the conflict began.
The Strait of Hormuz: A Critical Factor
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which approximately 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas is transported, has been effectively closed due to the conflict. The US military announced plans to enforce a blockade of Iranian ports following the breakdown of peace talks, further complicating the situation. Under normal circumstances, around 138 vessels cross the strait daily, but only a few have managed to do so since the ceasefire was declared. This blockade and the damage to oil and gas facilities in the Gulf have severely disrupted refining capacity, contributing to sustained high prices.
Government and Industry Responses
In response to the rising fuel costs, the UK government has stated that the country's fuel supplies remain "resilient," and a new scheme allows drivers to compare fuel prices across petrol stations. However, some analysts have suggested that easing restrictions on new drilling licenses in the North Sea could help mitigate price increases, although others remain skeptical about its effectiveness. The International Energy Agency has recommended measures to reduce energy consumption, such as working from home and carpooling.
Criticism and Future Outlook
Critics have raised concerns about potential price gouging by fuel retailers during the conflict, although retailers have denied these accusations. The Bank of England's monetary policy may also be affected, with interest rates expected to rise as inflationary pressures from the conflict begin to impact the broader economy. The next price cap for energy bills is set to take effect in July, and if the ceasefire does not hold, further increases in household energy costs may occur.
Verbatim Quotes
- “With dated Brent crude under 100 US dollars a barrel for the last three trading days, there’s now scope to see prices finally starting to go the other way.” — Simon Williams, RAC Head of Policy
- “There is an air of renewed nervousness pervading financial markets after the euphoria which was initially prompted by the US-Iran ceasefire.” — Dan Coatsworth, Head of Markets at AJ Bell
- “Had it not been for this shock, we would have been upgrading global growth," said Kristalina Georgieva, the fund's managing director.” — Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund
The situation remains fluid, with the potential for further developments in the conflict to significantly impact fuel prices in the UK.
