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India Forecasts Below-Average Monsoon Rainfall for 2026

4/13/2026

28 4 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

India is expected to have below-average monsoon rainfall in 2026, at 92% of the long-term average, per the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
IMD notes El Niño conditions may develop during the season, typically reducing rainfall.
The forecast carries a 5% margin of error and will be updated in late May 2026.
Lower rainfall could raise food prices and affect India's economy, already pressured by the Middle East conflict.

History

Historical Context

The 1997 El Niño event caused significant global weather disruptions, including a 30% decrease in monsoon rainfall in India, leading to increased food prices and economic strain. This phenomenon, which occurs every two to seven years, has long-term implications for agricultural output and food security, echoing concerns anticipated for the 2026 forecast amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

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Story summary

India is expected to have below-average monsoon rainfall in 2026, at 92% of the long-term average, per the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
IMD notes El Niño conditions may develop during the season, typically reducing rainfall.
The forecast carries a 5% margin of error and will be updated in late May 2026.
Lower rainfall could raise food prices and affect India's economy, already pressured by the Middle East conflict.

1 / 2