Democrats Gain Ground in Florida Ahead of 2026 Midterms

Recent polling indicates that Democrats are in a stronger position than in previous years to compete in Florida's 2026 midterm elections. Conducted by EDGE Communications and MDW Communications between March 27 and April 3, the survey of 1,834 likely voters reveals a significant shift among independent voters, traditionally a Republican stronghold. President Donald Trump's declining approval ratings are seen as a critical factor influencing this change.

Newsweek

President Trump's net approval rating in Florida stands at -6, with a stark -39 among independent voters, who constitute 22% of the anticipated electorate. The poll highlights that Trump is underwater on key issues, including the economy (-4.9), government spending (-12.7), and immigration enforcement (-2.7). His most significant deficit is related to the Jeffrey Epstein files, where he has a net approval of -25.2. This erosion of support is prompting concerns within the Republican Party, as loyalty among Republican voters has dropped below 90%, with a defection rate of 6.4% exceeding that of Democrats.

Florida PoliticsNewsweek

The polling data suggests that Florida's marquee races are highly competitive. In a hypothetical governor's race, Republican Representative Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly are tied at 41%, with 18.3% of voters undecided. The Senate race between Democratic candidate Alex Vindman and Republican incumbent Ashley Moody shows a narrow margin of 42% to 43%. In the attorney general's race, Democrat José Javier Rodríguez leads Republican James Uthmeier 43% to 40%, indicating a potential advantage for Democrats as the campaign progresses.

Florida PoliticsNewsweek

Economic issues dominate voter concerns, with nearly 70% of respondents ranking housing costs, property insurance, and property taxes among their top three issues. Notably, corruption emerged as the single most important issue for 21% of voters, surpassing economic categories. The poll also assessed support for a proposed elimination of property taxes, initially favored by 55.1% of respondents. However, when potential trade-offs were introduced, support plummeted to 39.4%, indicating a lack of consensus even among Republican voters.

Florida Politics

The findings suggest a fluid political environment in Florida, with Democrats needing to capitalize on this momentum to establish organized campaigns. Meanwhile, Republicans face the challenge of addressing Trump's negative impact on their brand and regaining the trust of independent voters. As Christian Ulvert, president of EDGE Communications, noted, the shifting dynamics among independent voters could be decisive in the upcoming elections.

Newsweek

Pollsters have emphasized the significance of Trump's weaknesses in reshaping the GOP's brand in Florida. They noted, “The Democrats’ lead solidifies how deeply Trump’s weakness is pulling down the GOP brand.” Additionally, Michael Worley, president of MDW Communications, remarked, “The clear edge Republicans have held on economic issues in Florida since COVID has gone away as costs continue to skyrocket.”

Newsweek

• “Trump is underwater on virtually every issue voters care about most,” — Pollsters

Newsweek

• “The 2026 environment is shifting in real time, and Democrats should be energized by what we are seeing,” — Christian Ulvert, President of EDGE Communications

Florida Politics

• “The fact that voters are not on-board highlights yet another crack in the GOP's brand,” — Martin Page, Partner and COO at MDW Communications

Newsweek

The evolving political landscape in Florida presents both opportunities and challenges for Democrats and Republicans as they prepare for the 2026 midterms.

Newsweek