Texas Senate Runoff: Ken Paxton vs. John Cornyn

The Texas Senate primary runoff election features a closely contested battle between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent Senator John Cornyn. A recent poll conducted by co/efficient indicates that Paxton trails Cornyn by just one percentage point, with 43% support compared to Cornyn's 44%. The runoff follows a March primary where neither candidate secured a majority, setting the stage for a significant intraparty contest that could influence the Republican Party's direction in Texas, a critical state for Senate control.

Newsweek

The poll, conducted from April 11 to April 14 among 1,143 likely Republican primary voters, has a margin of error of 3.07%. It reveals that while Paxton enjoys a favorability rating of 55%, Cornyn's stands at 47%. Notably, among women, support is slightly in favor of Cornyn (44% to 43%), whereas among men, Paxton leads (44% to 43%). Cornyn holds a significant advantage among Hispanic voters, garnering 47% compared to Paxton's 37%. Additionally, 13% of voters remain undecided.

Newsweek

Cornyn's campaign has emphasized his alignment with President Donald Trump, highlighting that he has voted with Trump 99.3% of the time. Senior adviser Matt Mackowiak stated, “Senator Cornyn over-performed all expectations by winning the March 3 primary after Ken Paxton spent two weeks predicting he would win without a runoff.” Mackowiak argues that Cornyn is the strongest nominee to secure additional Congressional seats and advance Trump's legislative agenda.

Newsweek

President Donald Trump has not yet endorsed a candidate in the runoff but has expressed urgency regarding the race. In a statement on Truth Social, he remarked, "The Republican Primary Race for the United States Senate in the Great State of Texas... cannot, for the good of the Party, and our Country, itself, be allowed to go on any longer." Trump indicated that he would soon announce his endorsement and suggested that the candidate not endorsed should withdraw from the race.

Newsweek

The runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This election is pivotal not only for the candidates involved but also for the Republican Party's strategy in the upcoming general election against Democratic nominee James Talarico.

Newsweek

While both candidates have their supporters, there are concerns regarding the implications of a divisive primary. Critics argue that the focus on internal party conflicts could weaken the Republican position against Talarico in the general election.

Newsweek

• “Senator Cornyn over-performed all expectations by winning the March 3 primary after Ken Paxton spent two weeks predicting he would win without a runoff. Sen. Cornyn has voted with President Trump 99.3% of the time and is one of his most effective allies in the Senate.” — Matt Mackowiak, Cornyn Campaign Senior Adviser

Newsweek

• “), cannot, for the good of the Party, and our Country, itself, be allowed to go on any longer.” — Donald Trump, Former President

Newsweek

This runoff election represents a critical moment for Texas Republicans as they prepare to face a formidable Democratic challenger in November.

Newsweek