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Plaid Cymru Set to Dominate Senedd, Labour Falls to Third

4/16/2026

33 4 Full Breakdown

Center

Plaid Cymru Prevails

Plaid Cymru is projected to become the largest party in the Senedd, winning 33 seats and 28.8% of the vote.
Reform UK would follow with 29 seats and 24.8% of the vote.
Labour is forecast to drop to third with 17 seats, a historic decline for a party long dominant in Welsh politics.
Analysts say the results could trigger upheaval across Britain and affect Labour's leadership under Sir Keir Starmer.

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Reform UK Declines

Reform UK falls to 25% in a More in Common poll, down five points and at its lowest share since April 2025.
The Conservative Party stands at 22%, closing the gap with Reform UK.
Rupert Lowe's new party, Restore Britain, polls at 4%.
Nigel Farage's popularity is waning, with a net approval rating of -20%.
Some polls suggest Reform UK may perform well in local elections, particularly in Wales.

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Plaid Cymru Prevails

Plaid Cymru is projected to become the largest party in the Senedd, winning 33 seats and 28.8% of the vote.
Reform UK would follow with 29 seats and 24.8% of the vote.
Labour is forecast to drop to third with 17 seats, a historic decline for a party long dominant in Welsh politics.
Analysts say the results could trigger upheaval across Britain and affect Labour's leadership under Sir Keir Starmer.

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