ASML Raises 2026 Sales Forecast Amid AI Chip Demand Surge

ASML Holding NV, the leading supplier of chipmaking tools, reported robust first-quarter earnings for 2026, exceeding market expectations. The company achieved net sales of €8.77 billion ($10.26 billion), a 13% increase from the previous year, and net income rose 17% to €2.76 billion. Following this performance, ASML raised its full-year sales forecast for 2026 to between €36 billion and €40 billion, up from a prior estimate of €34 billion to €39 billion. This adjustment reflects a significant uptick in demand for semiconductors, particularly driven by investments in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.

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ASML's CEO, Christophe Fouquet, emphasized that the demand for chips is currently outpacing supply, prompting customers to accelerate their capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond. Major clients, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) and South Korea's Samsung Electronics, are investing heavily in production capabilities to meet the surging demand for AI-related chips. TSMC has announced capital expenditures of up to $56 billion for 2026, while SK Hynix plans to invest approximately $8 billion in ASML's advanced tools.

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Despite the positive outlook, ASML faces challenges, particularly regarding export restrictions to China. A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers has proposed the "MATCH Act," which could further limit ASML's ability to sell its deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography tools to China, a market that accounted for 19% of ASML's sales in the first quarter, down from 36% in the previous quarter. The company has historically been unable to sell its most advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) tools to China due to U.S. restrictions aimed at curbing technological advancements in the country.

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ASML plans to produce at least 60 low-NA EUV systems in 2026, with a potential increase to 80 units in 2027. CFO Roger Dassen noted that the company is working closely with its key supplier, Zeiss, to enhance production capacity. However, analysts express concerns about ASML's ability to meet the rapid demand growth, as the manufacturing of advanced lithography machines can take over a year from order to delivery.

Taipei Times

While ASML's earnings report was strong, the stock experienced fluctuations, with shares dropping by as much as 5.1% following the announcement. Investors remain cautious about the company's ability to capitalize fully on the AI boom due to potential supply chain constraints and geopolitical uncertainties. Analysts have noted that the stock's valuation may already be high, which could limit further gains despite the strong demand outlook.

Benzinga

• “Demand for chips is outpacing supply.” — Christophe Fouquet, CEO of ASML

CNBC

• “We expect that the bandwidth in our 2026 guidance accommodates potential outcomes of ongoing discussions around export controls,” — Christophe Fouquet, CEO of ASML

Bloomberg

• “We do not want to be the bottleneck for our customer.” — Christophe Fouquet, CEO of ASML

Bloomberg

ASML's position as a critical player in the semiconductor supply chain underscores its pivotal role in the ongoing AI infrastructure expansion, even as it navigates the complexities of geopolitical pressures and market dynamics.

Taipei Times