Vietnam's Strategic Alignment with China Amid U.S. Tensions

In recent months, Vietnam has signaled a significant pivot towards China, particularly in the context of rising tensions with the United States. Following the election of To Lam as Vietnam's president on April 7, 2026, he embarked on a four-day state visit to China, where he and Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized their countries' shared socialist ideologies and strategic interests. During their meetings, both leaders described the bilateral relationship as a "strategic choice of overarching and long-term significance," focusing on cooperation in infrastructure, security, and trade.

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Vietnam's military planners have been preparing for potential conflict, as indicated by a document titled the “Second US Invasion Plan,” which was issued in August 2024. This plan reflects Vietnam's concerns about U.S. intentions in the Asia-Pacific region, viewing the promotion of "freedom and democracy" as a guise for maintaining American hegemony. The document warns of the U.S. exploiting Vietnam's geographic features for military operations, underscoring the need for vigilance against perceived aggression.

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During his visit, To Lam expressed Vietnam's interest in enhancing railway cooperation with China, highlighting the importance of infrastructure connectivity. The two nations signed several agreements, including a memorandum of understanding on railway training cooperation. Lam's admiration for China's high-speed rail network was evident, as he undertook a journey on one of its trains, which he praised for its technological advancements. Vietnam is currently planning multiple high-speed rail projects, including a significant line connecting Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, with construction set to begin this year.

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Despite the strengthening ties with China, some analysts caution against Vietnam's increasing alignment with Beijing. Critics argue that this could undermine Vietnam's sovereignty and complicate its relations with the United States, which remains a key partner in security matters. The balancing act of maintaining good relations with both China and the U.S. is seen as a delicate strategy that could lead to geopolitical tensions.

The Straits Times

In a joint statement following their meetings, Xi and Lam reiterated their commitment to enhancing cooperation across various sectors, including security and law enforcement. Xi emphasized the need for both nations to "maintain a high level of strategic vigilance" and to manage disagreements, particularly in the South China Sea, where territorial disputes persist.

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As Vietnam deepens its ties with China, the implications for its relationship with the United States remain uncertain. The upcoming summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in mid-May 2026 is expected to address various global issues, including the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which could further influence Vietnam's foreign policy decisions.

The Straits Times

• “an objective requirement, a strategic choice and a top priority.” — To Lam, President of Vietnam

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• “defending the socialist system and the ruling position of the Communist Party is the greatest common strategic interest” — Xi Jinping, President of China

The Straits Times

• “The document, released in February by the human rights group Project88, said that “due to the US’s belligerent nature, we need to be vigilant to prevent the US and its allies from ‘creating a pretext’ to launch a war of aggression against our country.” — Excerpt from Vietnam's military document

South China Morning Post

This evolving dynamic between Vietnam and China, set against the backdrop of U.S. foreign policy, highlights the complexities of regional geopolitics and the strategic choices facing nations in the Asia-Pacific.

The Straits Times