Full Breakdown
Confidence in New Oil Pipeline Project Declines Amidst Economic Uncertainty
4/18/2026, 12:52:10 PM
Overview of the Current Situation
Recent sentiment within Canada's energy sector indicates a waning confidence in the approval of a new oil pipeline project, as revealed by a business sentiment survey conducted by ATB Cormark Capital Markets. The survey, which included responses from executives across 24 energy services firms, 22 exploration and production companies, and 17 institutional investors, was conducted between March 18 and April 1, 2026. Only 46% of respondents believed it was probable that a new pipeline would be designated as a project of national interest under federal legislation, a decrease from 52% in a previous survey conducted in late 2025.
Factors Influencing Confidence
The decline in optimism may be attributed to unresolved issues surrounding the Alberta-Ottawa energy accord, particularly regarding the Pathways carbon capture and storage project and the anticipated increase in industrial carbon pricing. Patrick O’Rourke, managing director of institutional equity research at ATB Cormark, noted that the timing of the survey coincided with anxiety over meeting deadlines for funding agreements related to these initiatives. Despite the skepticism, O’Rourke acknowledged the significance of the Alberta-Ottawa agreement, highlighting the unprecedented collaboration between federal and provincial governments.
Industry Perspectives
Responses from industry executives reflect a growing frustration with the federal government's pace in addressing structural issues within the energy sector. One anonymous executive criticized the lack of progress, stating, “Not one project [in oil and gas] has come to fruition. Start building, or better yet just get out of the way of industry.” Conversely, there is a more favorable outlook regarding the revival of the Keystone XL pipeline, with survey respondents expressing greater optimism for this project compared to the West Coast pipeline, which currently lacks private-sector interest.
Economic Context
The survey results emerged during a period of significant volatility in global commodity prices, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The war has disrupted tanker shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a surge in global crude prices, which have fluctuated significantly. Despite these challenges, a majority of respondents reported an improving business outlook, with 86% of exploration and production executives and 67% of energy services executives anticipating increased activity levels in the coming months.
Official Statements & Responses
In the spring 2026 survey, 48% of respondents expressed belief that Prime Minister Mark Carney's government would actively work to expand the energy sector, an increase from 37% in the fall 2025 poll. This shift suggests a cautious optimism regarding the government's future role in supporting energy initiatives.
Verbatim Quotes
- “People are losing faith that the Liberal government will actually fix any of the structural problems they created in the last 10 years,” — Anonymous Executive, Exploration and Production Company
- “Even the fact that you brought the federal and provincial governments to the table together was something that was almost unfathomable a few years ago,” — Patrick O’Rourke, Managing Director, ATB Cormark
- “A lot of these businesses have business models that work very, very well at crude prices in the US$70 to US$75 [per barrel] range,” — Patrick O’Rourke, Managing Director, ATB Cormark
Conclusion
The outlook for a new oil pipeline project in Canada remains uncertain, with industry leaders expressing both frustration and cautious optimism. As the Alberta government prepares to submit an application to the federal major projects office, the future of the pipeline hinges on resolving key economic and regulatory challenges.
