Full Breakdown
MLB Home Run Betting Insights for April 17
4/18/2026, 1:17:59 PM
Key Betting Picks for April 17
On April 17, MLB betting enthusiasts are focusing on several promising home run prop bets as highlighted by SportsLine expert Jacob Fetner. Fetner, who achieved a notable success rate last season, has identified three players with favorable odds to hit home runs: Michael Busch of the Chicago Cubs, Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles, and Willy Adames of the San Francisco Giants.
Michael Busch: Cubs' Power Potential
Michael Busch is listed at +520 to hit a home run. Fetner notes that Busch has a strong platoon advantage against right-handed pitcher Kodai Senga, boasting a .260 batting average and an .868 OPS against right-handers since last season. Despite a recent slump, hitting just .056 over his last ten games, Busch has a history of power against right-handed pitching, with 33 of his 38 career home runs coming against them. The conditions for home runs are favorable, with an HR Index rating of 8 out of 10.
Gunnar Henderson: Orioles' Rising Star
Gunnar Henderson is another player to watch, with odds of +430. He has demonstrated consistent power, hitting 10 home runs in 359 plate appearances on the road, along with a .765 OPS. Henderson has been particularly effective against right-handed pitchers, hitting 18 of his 23 home runs in that matchup. His recent form includes three home runs in his last six games, and he has a strong track record against Tanner Bibee, the opposing pitcher, with a 1.444 OPS in nine at-bats.
Willy Adames: Giants' Road Warrior
Willy Adames is set at +388 to go deep. He has a solid history against right-handed pitchers, with 23 of his 33 home runs coming in that matchup. Adames has been more productive on the road, hitting 20 home runs in 385 plate appearances away from home. His recent performance includes two home runs in his last five games. The opposing pitcher, Zack Littell, has struggled at home, allowing 1.73 home runs per nine innings, which enhances Adames's chances of hitting a home run.
Official Statements & Responses
Jacob Fetner emphasizes the importance of favorable matchups and recent performance when selecting home run bets. He states, "We set Michael Busch's line at +452 to homer," highlighting the analytical approach to betting. Similarly, he notes, "Adames has been more dangerous on the road," indicating the significance of location in player performance.
Criticism & Opposition
While the analysis provided by Fetner is data-driven, critics of prop betting often point to the inherent unpredictability of sports outcomes. Some analysts argue that relying on statistical trends can overlook the variability of player performance on any given day.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We set Michael Busch's line at +452 to homer,” — Jacob Fetner, SportsLine Expert
In summary, bettors looking to capitalize on home run opportunities on April 17 should consider the insights provided by Jacob Fetner, focusing on Michael Busch, Gunnar Henderson, and Willy Adames as key players to watch.
