Hungary's Election: A Shift in Relations with Ukraine

The recent Hungarian elections resulted in a significant political shift with the defeat of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party, which had maintained a vociferously anti-Ukrainian stance. This change is viewed as a potential turning point for Ukrainian-Hungarian relations, as the newly elected leader, Peter Magyar of the Tisza party, is expected to adopt a more constructive approach towards Ukraine.

Viktor Orbán's administration had been a staunch ally of Russia within the European Union, often using anti-Ukrainian rhetoric to bolster his political position. His campaign included accusations against Ukraine, claiming that Kyiv was sabotaging energy supplies and threatening his family. This hostility culminated in a series of provocative actions, including the unlawful seizure of Ukrainian assets. The relationship between Hungary and Ukraine had deteriorated to the point of open hostility, particularly following incidents like the January attack on the Druzhba pipeline by a Russian drone.

Peter Magyar, the new leader of Hungary, is anticipated to lift Orbán's veto on €90 billion in EU aid to Ukraine and to support new sanctions against Russia. While he has expressed a willingness to engage with Ukraine, he has also indicated that issues such as Ukraine's EU accession should be approached cautiously, potentially through a referendum. Observers note that Magyar's pro-Hungarian stance may temper his support for Ukraine, as he navigates the complex political landscape shaped by Orbán's legacy.

Ukrainian officials, including Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the foreign affairs committee in Ukraine's parliament, have expressed cautious optimism regarding the election results. Merezhko described the outcome as a "strategic defeat for Putin," suggesting that Orbán's removal diminishes the likelihood of an anti-Ukrainian coalition in Europe. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated Magyar, emphasizing the importance of a constructive approach in fostering good neighborly relations.

Despite the positive outlook, some Ukrainian commentators urge caution regarding Magyar's intentions. Serhiy Sydorenko, editor of European Pravda, noted that Magyar is primarily pro-Hungarian rather than pro-Ukrainian. Political analysts like Marianna Prysiazhniuk warn that societal attitudes in Hungary, shaped by years of Orbán's propaganda, may not change quickly. Prysiazhniuk advises that Zelenskyy should approach relations with Hungary delicately, prioritizing Hungary's role as a reliable European partner over immediate ideological alignment.

Looking ahead, Magyar and Zelenskyy are expected to meet next month during the Bucharest Nine summit, where discussions will likely focus on rebuilding bilateral relations and addressing lingering issues, including the status of Ukraine's ethnic Hungarian minority and the return of unlawfully seized Ukrainian assets. The outcome of these talks will be critical in determining the future trajectory of Ukrainian-Hungarian relations.