Full Breakdown
2026 NHL Draft Lottery: Key Details and Team Odds
4/19/2026, 6:59:56 AM
Overview of the Draft Lottery Event
The National Hockey League (NHL) has officially scheduled the 2026 Draft Lottery for Tuesday, May 5, 2026. This event will take place at the NHL Network’s studio in Secaucus, New Jersey, and will be broadcast live on ESPN, Sportsnet, and TVA Sports. The lottery will determine the order of the first 16 picks in the upcoming 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft, which is set to occur on June 26-27, 2026, at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York.
Draft Lottery Mechanics
The lottery will feature a live drawing of the lottery balls, allowing viewers to see the odds change in real-time as teams are eliminated from contention. The lottery consists of two phases: the first will determine the overall first pick, while the second will establish the second overall pick. Only the top 11 teams that did not qualify for the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs will be eligible to win the first overall pick, with a maximum of 10 spots a team can move up if they win.
Team Odds for the 2026 Draft Lottery
The Vancouver Canucks have the highest odds of winning the lottery at 18.5%, followed by the Chicago Blackhawks at 13.5% and the New York Rangers at 11.5%. The Washington Capitals, however, are at the bottom of the odds list with only a 0.5% chance of winning, equating to just five combinations out of 1,000 in the lottery. The full odds for the first lottery draw are as follows:
- Vancouver Canucks: 18.5%
- Chicago Blackhawks: 13.5%
- New York Rangers: 11.5%
- Calgary Flames: 9.5%
- Toronto Maple Leafs: 8.5% (conditional trade to Boston Bruins)
- Seattle Kraken: 7.5%
- Winnipeg Jets: 6.5%
- Florida Panthers: 6.0%
- San Jose Sharks: 5.0%
- Nashville Predators: 3.5%
- St. Louis Blues: 3.0%
- New Jersey Devils: 2.5%
- New York Islanders: 2.0%
- Columbus Blue Jackets: 1.5%
- St. Louis Blues (from Detroit Red Wings): 0.5%
- Washington Capitals: 0.5%
Implications for the Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs, with an 8.5% chance of winning the lottery, face significant stakes due to a trade with the Boston Bruins. If the Leafs do not secure a top-five pick, they will forfeit their first-round selection to Boston. This scenario adds pressure to their lottery participation, as retaining their pick could allow them to draft a potential franchise-altering talent.
Expected Top Draft Picks
Among the prospects expected to be selected at the top of the draft are Gavin McKenna, a left winger from Penn State University, and Ivar Stenberg, a left winger from Frolunda in the Swedish Hockey League. McKenna recorded 51 points in 35 games during his freshman season, making him a strong candidate for the first overall pick.
Conclusion
The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery is poised to be a pivotal event for several franchises, particularly for teams like the Vancouver Canucks and the Toronto Maple Leafs, who have much at stake. As the date approaches, the anticipation surrounding the potential impact of the lottery on team rosters and future seasons continues to build.
