The Interplay of Political Bias and Conspiracy Thinking

A recent study published in *Political Psychology* reveals that an individual's propensity to believe in conspiracy theories is significantly influenced by their political affiliations, particularly when the rumors target opposing political figures. The research, conducted by Omer Yair and colleagues, highlights how psychological traits and political loyalties converge to shape beliefs in political conspiracy theories.

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The study analyzed survey data from six different studies, encompassing a total of 10,765 adult participants. Two surveys were conducted in the United States, one in spring 2021 with 2,021 adults and another in July 2024 with 2,765 adults, while four surveys in Israel included 5,979 adults between February 2023 and April 2025. Participants were asked about 61 conspiracy theories, with 30 being political in nature, such as allegations against Donald Trump and Barack Obama, and the remaining 31 being non-political.

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The researchers found that general conspiracy thinking strongly predicts belief in political conspiracy theories, but this relationship is contingent on political alignment. When a theory implicates a person's political rivals, individuals with a high tendency for conspiratorial thinking are more likely to endorse it. Conversely, when a theory suggests wrongdoing by their own political group, even those with strong conspiratorial tendencies are less likely to believe it. For instance, during the 2024 U.S. election, nearly 80% of highly conspiratorial Republicans believed in a theory alleging Democratic involvement in an assassination attempt against Trump, while less than 10% of those with low conspiratorial thinking endorsed the same theory.

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The study also uncovered geographic variations in the impact of conspiracy thinking. The effect was found to be stronger in the United States compared to Israel, where political conspiracy theories were more deeply politicized. This suggests that the dynamics of conspiracy belief may vary significantly across different political landscapes.

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While the study provides valuable insights, it has limitations. The data is derived from only two countries, raising questions about the generalizability of the findings. Additionally, the observational nature of the surveys leaves room for reverse causality, where belief in specific rumors could potentially enhance general conspiracy thinking. The researchers also noted the challenge of distinguishing between political and non-political theories, as the context can shift over time.

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Yair emphasized the importance of understanding the interaction between psychological predispositions and political preferences, stating, “It’s not just people’s politics or just people’s psychological tendencies that affect their endorsement of partisan conspiracy theories – it’s a combination.” He also pointed out that not all members of a political group are likely to believe in conspiracy theories targeting their rivals.

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Future research could explore these dynamics in other social contexts, such as racial or gender-based group conflicts, and experimental studies may further validate these findings by manipulating how rumors are presented.

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• “Our results show an interesting combination or marriage of psychological predispositions and political preferences.” — Omer Yair, Researcher

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• “ “I think there are two main takeaways: First, even people who are ‘conspiratorial’ and tend to believe in many conspiracy theories will likely not react similarly to conspiracy theories that accuse their political rival and conspiracy theories that accuse their own political group.” — Omer Yair, Researcher

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• “We found that the effect of conspiracy thinking on conspiracy beliefs was consistently stronger in the United States, while the conspiracy theories in Israel were more ‘politicized’ in the sense that the baseline partisan differences (i.e., among partisans, from the rival groups, who had the lowest levels of conspiracy thinking) were consistently stronger in Israel. As an Israeli, it was quite surprising.” — Omer Yair, Researcher

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