Farrer Byelection: Coalition's Preference Shift and One Nation's Challenges

The upcoming byelection in Farrer, scheduled for May 9, 2026, has become a focal point of political maneuvering as the Liberal and National parties have decided to preference One Nation's candidate, David Farley, over independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe. This decision could significantly influence the election outcome in the traditionally conservative southern New South Wales seat, which was vacated by former MP Sussan Ley.

The Guardian

The byelection was triggered by Ley's resignation following a leadership change within the Liberal Party. Milthorpe, who previously reduced Ley's margin to 6.2% in the last election, is now facing a crowded field that includes Farley, Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski, and Nationals candidate Brad Robertson. The Coalition's preference shift comes despite a recent campaign of negative advertisements targeting One Nation, particularly focusing on the party's controversial hiring of convicted rapist Sean Black.

The Guardian

• Michelle Milthorpe: Independent candidate backed by Climate 200, aiming to distance herself from the teal independent movement.

The Guardian

• David Farley: One Nation candidate, positioned as a frontrunner alongside Milthorpe.

The Guardian

• Raissa Butkowski: Liberal candidate, benefiting from being first on the ballot.

The Sydney Morning Herald

• Brad Robertson: Nationals candidate, also in contention.

The Guardian

• Pauline Hanson: Leader of One Nation, facing scrutiny over her party's decisions and recent controversies.

The Sydney Morning Herald

Milthorpe criticized the Coalition's decision to preference One Nation, questioning its implications for the future of the Liberal Party. "I find it fascinating that the Liberal party would choose to preference a party that seemingly wants to take them out," she stated. Meanwhile, Nationals leader Matt Canavan defended the preference shift, asserting that it was necessary to combat the influence of the teal-backed independent candidate.

The Guardian

One Nation's leadership has expressed frustration over the Coalition's preference strategy. James Ashby, Hanson's chief of staff, urged the Coalition to collaborate with One Nation against Labor rather than compete against each other. He emphasized that the party views Labor as the primary adversary. Additionally, Barnaby Joyce, a One Nation MP, attributed the party's recent dip in support to negative press surrounding Black's employment, dismissing the credibility of the GetUp campaign against them.

The Sydney Morning Herald

Recent polling indicates a slight decline in One Nation's support, with the party's primary vote dropping to 22% in April, down from 24% in March. In contrast, support for the Coalition has risen to 23%, while Labor has gained traction, reaching 32%. This shift reflects a competitive electoral landscape as the byelection approaches.

The Sydney Morning Herald

As the byelection date nears, both major parties are intensifying their campaigns. GetUp, a left-wing advocacy group, has committed to spending at least $600,000 on an anti-Hanson campaign, linking her to rising fuel prices and economic challenges faced by regional voters. This aggressive strategy aims to sway undecided voters and capitalize on One Nation's vulnerabilities.

The Sydney Morning Herald

While some sources indicate a decline in One Nation's popularity, others suggest that the party's core supporters remain steadfast. The mixed polling results highlight the uncertainty surrounding the byelection outcome, with various factors influencing voter sentiment.

The Sydney Morning Herald

• “If that’s what they think they need to do, they’ve got to think about what that means for their future.” — Michelle Milthorpe, Independent Candidate

The Guardian

• “We see Labor as the enemy, not the Coalition,” — James Ashby, Chief of Staff to Pauline Hanson

The Sydney Morning Herald

• “There’s no place in Australian politics for anybody convicted of violent sexual assault.” — Liberal Party Ad

The Guardian

• “When they hear GetUp, they go ‘here goes a whole heap of bile’.” — Barnaby Joyce, One Nation MP

The Sydney Morning Herald

The Farrer byelection is shaping up to be a critical test for both the Coalition and One Nation, with implications that could resonate beyond the local electorate.

The Sydney Morning Herald