Climate Change's Impact on Democratic Elections

A recent analysis by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance highlights the growing threat that climate change poses to democratic processes globally. Over the past two decades, at least 94 elections and referendums across 52 countries have been disrupted by climate-related events such as floods, wildfires, and extreme weather. In 2024 alone, 23 elections in 18 countries, including Brazil, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Senegal, faced interruptions due to these climate impacts, which damaged infrastructure, displaced voters, and necessitated last-minute changes to electoral processes.

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The report emphasizes that the pressure on fragile democratic systems, particularly in Africa and Asia, is expected to intensify as climate risks escalate. Sarah Birch, a co-author of the report and a professor of politics at King’s College London, advocates for scheduling elections during periods when climate-related disasters are least likely to occur. She notes that even in the United States, elections are still held in November, coinciding with the hurricane season, which raises concerns about potential disruptions.

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The report documents over 100 climate-related crises affecting elections, with notable examples including Mozambique's 2019 election, where Cyclone Idai submerged infrastructure and displaced voters, impacting the election results. Similarly, during Senegal's parliamentary election in November 2024, flooding required firefighters to assist election observers in reaching polling stations. Additionally, heatwaves have increasingly affected elections, with at least 10 instances since 2022, including the Philippines' general election, where extreme heat caused vote-counting machines to malfunction.

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To mitigate the impact of extreme climate events on elections, the report recommends that election organizers collaborate with meteorological experts, environmental protection agencies, and disaster relief organizations. For instance, election staff in Peru have undergone training in disaster risk management to better respond to disruptions on voting day. Furthermore, the Alberta provincial legislature in Canada plans to shift its traditional election date from May to October to avoid the wildfire season.

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Ferran Martínez i Coma, a professor of government at Griffith University in Australia, stresses the importance of preparation and contingency planning as natural hazards become more frequent. He asserts that these measures are crucial for maintaining the integrity and resilience of elections.

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While the report provides a comprehensive overview of the impact of climate change on elections, it does not specify the exact methodologies used to gather data on the disruptions or the criteria for selecting the elections analyzed. Additionally, the report does not address the potential long-term effects of these disruptions on voter turnout and public trust in democratic processes.

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• “Elections should be held when disasters are least likely,” — Sarah Birch, Professor of Politics, King’s College London

The Guardian

• “As natural hazards increase, training and contingency planning is more important than ever. Preparation is key to the integrity and resilience of the elections.” — Ferran Martínez i Coma, Professor of Government, Griffith University

The Guardian