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IRGC Seizes Ships, Strait Traffic Odds Plummet

4/24/2026

Summary

IRGC Seizes Ships

IRGC seized several cargo and container ships near the Strait of Hormuz.
The chance that 80 ships will transit the Strait by April 30 fell to 4 % from 17 %.
The chance of UK warships entering the Strait by April 30 dropped to 2.4 % from 10 %.
The odds that a U.S. blockade of Hormuz will lift fell to 55.5 % from 77 %.
The market’s face value is $12,488, with actual USDC traded at $917.

Summary

Iranian Tanker Departs

Only five vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours, versus a pre-war average of about 140 daily.
The sanctioned Iranian tanker Niki left the strait with no destination listed.
The Comoros-flagged supertanker Helga arrived at Basra, the second vessel to reach Iraq since the closure.
Iranian media reported fourteen ships, including seven Iranian-flagged, breached the U.S. blockade.
Over 400 ships remain detained in the Persian Gulf.

Summary

IRGC Attacks

On April 18, IRGC fired on two Indian-flagged vessels transiting the strait.
Captain Raman Kapoor says his 24-member crew has been anchored for three months.
Seafarer Ankit Yadav survived two-and-a-half weeks in an Iranian port on limited food.
The Indian shipping ministry has repatriated about 2,680 seafarers, although three Indian sailors have died, while BIMCO's Jakob Larsen warns owners will sail only after a peace deal lowers the threat level.

Summary

Trump Extends Ceasefire

U.S. President Donald Trump extended the two-week Iran ceasefire to give Tehran time for a unified proposal.
Islamabad is pushing for a second round of U.S.–Iran talks in Pakistan’s capital.
Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf warned the ceasefire only makes sense if the U.S. blockade ends.
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz will open to commercial traffic, requiring vessels to obtain crossing permission.

History

Historical Context

On 18 April 1988 the United States carried out Operation Praying Mantis, deploying five warships that destroyed two Iranian oil platforms, two frigates and several speedboats after the frigate USS Samuel B. Roberts struck an Iranian mine. The strike pushed Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps to accept a cease-fire that summer, creating a precedent that today’s IRGC cargo-vessel seizures can again jeopardize global oil flow.

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IRGC Seizes Ships

IRGC seized several cargo and container ships near the Strait of Hormuz.
The chance that 80 ships will transit the Strait by April 30 fell to 4 % from 17 %.
The chance of UK warships entering the Strait by April 30 dropped to 2.4 % from 10 %.
The odds that a U.S. blockade of Hormuz will lift fell to 55.5 % from 77 %.
The market’s face value is $12,488, with actual USDC traded at $917.

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