U.S. Soldier Charged with Insider Trading on Prediction Market Amid Growing Regulatory Scrutiny

On April 24 2026 the Justice Department charged Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a soldier who helped plan the operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, using classified details to bet $33-$34 k on Polymarket, earning about $400 k.

Politico

Key actors: Van Dyke; Polymarket (CEO Shayne Coplan); Kalshi (communications head Elisabeth Diana); Acting AG Todd Blanche; Governor Gavin Newsom; Democratic lawmakers; Donald Trump Jr., adviser to both platforms; and Kalshi-suspended candidates Matthew Klein, Ezekiel Enriquez, Mark Moran (fines $500-$6,000).

Politico

Van Dyke earned ~$400 k. Polymarket bets yielded $48,500 and $200 k and spurred a French probe over a temperature-spike market at Paris’s Charles de Gaulle. Six insiders made >$1 M on Iran-strike bets; Kalshi fined candidates $500-$6,000 and suspended MrBeast editor Artem Kaptur ($20 k).

Politico

Acting AG Todd Blanche said service members cannot use classified info for personal gain. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said the firm flagged and cooperated. Kalshi’s Elisabeth Diana affirmed the exchange bans insider trading. Gov. Newsom’s order calls insider betting a conflict of interest for officials. The CFTC has defended the industry against state attempts to regulate prediction markets.

Politico

Lawmakers demand federal oversight, warning the “relatively new phenomenon” threatens security. Slate analysts say insider trading “feels like a feature, not a bug” and flag Donald Trump Jr.’s advisory role. Critics note enforcement is limited.

Politico

Sources differ on Van Dyke’s wager amount—one cites $33,000, another $34,000—though both agree on a $400,000 payout. Bets are described only as “more than a dozen.” The extent of non-military insider trading on prediction markets remains unclear.

Slate

The indictment proceeds in federal court while California, Arizona and Massachusetts draft insider-betting bans. The CFTC pledges to defend its authority; both platforms promise continued cooperation. Ongoing probes of temperature-spike wagers suggest further scrutiny. Additional civil suits may also follow.

Slate

• “Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain,” — Todd Blanche, Acting Attorney General

Politico

• “Widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information fully apply.” — Todd Blanche, Acting Attorney General

Slate

• “Noise aside, the reality is we work proactively with all relevant authorities on any suspicious activity on our marketplace,” — Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket

Politico

• “As a federally regulated exchange, we prohibit insider trading and market manipulation and have meaningful surveillance and enforcement programs in place,” — Elisabeth Diana, Head of Communications, Kalshi

Politico

• “Well, you know, the whole world unfortunately has become somewhat of a casino,” — Donald Trump, President

Slate

• “The prediction markets’ goal is to create tradeable assets out of every conceivable difference in human opinion that wouldn’t get them into too much legal or public-relations trouble.” — Slate analysis

Slate