Trump’s Approval Rating Plummets Amid Iran War and Economic Strain

Across a suite of recent polls, President Donald Trump’s job approval has fallen to historic lows for his second term. The New York Times polling average shows 58 % disapprove versus 39 % approve, a net-approval of –19 points. RealClearPolling reports 40.5 % approve and 57.6 % disapprove. The Economist/YouGov poll (April 20) recorded 41 % approve and 56 % disapprove, while Reuters-Ipsos placed overall approval in the mid-30s. Economic-specific approval is even lower: AP-NORC found 30 % approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, down from 38 % in March, and only 23 % approve of his management of the cost of living.

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The decline follows the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2025, which has driven gasoline prices above $4 per gallon and heightened inflation (3.3 % YoY in March). Tariffs announced in April 2025—dubbed “Liberation Day” tariffs—were struck down by the Supreme Court but remain politically salient. The war, rising energy costs, and a series of government shutdowns have amplified public anxiety about the economy, making the conflict a central factor in the president’s waning popularity as the 2026 midterms approach.

The Hill

• Overall approval: NYT average 39 %/58 %; RealClear 40.5 %/57.6 %; Reuters-Ipsos 36 %/62 %.

Memphis Commerical Appeal

• Economic approval: AP-NORC 30 % (economy), 23 % (cost of living).

The Independent

• Iran war approval: 32 % approve (AP-NORC).

PBS News Hour

• Party breakdown: 84 % of Republicans in Tennessee approve; 98 % of Democrats disapprove nationally.

Memphis Commerical Appeal

• Demographics: 76 % of Gen Z disapprove (NBC/SurveyMonkey); 91 % of Black voters disapprove (PBS).

Newsweek

• Net approval: –19 points (NYT); –16 in Pennsylvania (Civiqs).

Memphis Commerical Appeal

Low approval threatens Republican prospects in the November midterms. Nate Silver notes Trump is the second-most unpopular president among the past nine midterms, trailing only George W. Bush in 2006. Declining support among independents and younger voters—key swing constituencies—could erode the GOP’s narrow House (217-214) and Senate (53-47) majorities. The president’s handling of the economy and the Iran war are cited as primary reasons voters consider switching parties.

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White House spokesperson Kush Desai defended the administration, asserting that “America remains on a solid economic trajectory thanks to deregulation, tax cuts, and energy abundance.” President Trump dismissed inflation concerns as “some fake inflation because of the fuel, the energy prices” and labeled the Iran ceasefire a “little journey,” while warning that companies that do not seek tariff refunds will be “remembered.”

The Hill

Democratic and independent voters overwhelmingly oppose the Iran war (58 % vs. 31 % support) and criticize the president’s economic stewardship. Former conservative allies—including Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene—have publicly turned against Trump. Analysts attribute the slide to the war’s impact on gas prices, the failed tariffs, and unmet promises to lower living costs.

The Independent

Polls diverge on exact approval levels: overall approval ranges from 32 % (American Research Group) to 41 % (Economist/YouGov). Economic approval varies between 30 % (AP-NORC) and 33 % (AP-NORC earlier in March). Data on specific voter sub-groups (e.g., MAGA Republicans) remain limited, and the long-term effect of the Iran ceasefire on public opinion is still uncertain.

Doylestown Intelligencer

• “I don’t know if you’re seeing my eyes literally pop off the screen here, because these numbers are just downright atrocious. They’re the worst ever!” — Harry Enten, CNN data analyst

Daily Beast

• “Wave adios, amigos! Kiss goodbye to that Republican majority in the House, and maybe the Senate as well!” — Harry Enten, CNN data analyst

Daily Beast

• “I feel disgusted with myself, I feel betrayed, like he was a wolf in sheep's clothing,” — Kathryn Bright, retired U.S. Air Force captain (PBS)

PBS News Hour

• “It's awful, and not just for me,” — Heidi Bunting, student and mother (PBS)

PBS News Hour

The April 22-23 polling cycle precedes the 2026 midterms, where Democrats aim to flip the House and Senate. The administration’s next steps on the Iran ceasefire and any policy adjustments to curb inflation will be closely watched. Continued polling will gauge whether the president can arrest the decline before voters head to the polls in November.

Newsweek