Full Breakdown
Trump’s Prediction-Market Push Amid Past Anti-Gambling Stance
4/25/2026, 7:01:16 AM
Prediction-Market Push
In April 2024 President Donald Trump said the world “has become somewhat of a casino,” noting the rise of gambling and prediction markets. He also announced that Trump Media will launch prediction markets on Truth Social through Crypto.com, with beta testing slated soon, following recent federal moves that eased restrictions on platforms like Polymarket.
Casino History
Trump owned Atlantic City casinos in the 1980s, testified against Native-American casino projects in the 1990s, and saw his resorts enter bankruptcy. By 2011 he urged lawmakers to legalize online gaming, saying the U.S. was “missing out” as other nations embraced it.
Key Players
- Donald Trump – President; transferred majority Trump Media shares to a revocable trust.
- Donald Trump Jr. – Investor in Polymarket and adviser to Kalshi; says he does not influence policy.
- Michael S. Selig – CFTC Chairman overseeing federal regulation of prediction markets.
- Gannon Ken Van Dyke – Soldier charged with using insider knowledge to win $400,000 on Polymarket.
The Justice Department and CFTC have sued Connecticut, Arizona and Illinois, asserting exclusive federal authority over prediction-market sites.
Official Responses
The White House said Trump has no involvement in business deals that could affect his constitutional duties and called contrary claims ill-informed. CFTC Chairman Selig said the agency will safeguard its exclusive authority and push back against overzealous state regulators. Polymarket CEO Coplan said the platform flags suspicious activity and cooperates with authorities. Connecticut AG Tong warned the state will defend consumer-protection laws.
Opposition
State officials argue prediction contracts are unlicensed illegal gambling under long-standing statutes. Consumer groups warn insider-trading safeguards are weak, citing the Van Dyke case. Critics note a conflict of interest from Trump’s stake in a platform that could shape market sentiment.
Conflicts
Trump said he was unaware of the Van Dyke case, yet the Justice Department filed a civil suit. How much Trump could profit from the upcoming Truth Social prediction market remains unclear because his shares are held in a revocable trust.
Quotes
- “You know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino… I don’t like it conceptually, but it is what it is now.” — Donald Trump, President
- “That’s like Pete Rose betting on his own team. It’s a little like Pete Rose.” — Donald Trump, President
- “The President has no involvement in business deals that would implicate his constitutional responsibilities.” — David Warrington, White House counsel
- “The CFTC will continue to safeguard its exclusive regulatory authority over these markets and defend market participants against overzealous state regulators.” — Michael S. Selig, CFTC Chairman
Next Steps
Beta testing of Truth Social prediction markets is slated for the coming weeks. The CFTC’s lawsuit against Connecticut, Arizona and Illinois proceeds, and the Van Dyke criminal case moves toward trial.
